<p>The Middle East and North Africa is the world&#39;s crossroads. It encompasses the Arabian Peninsula, the mountains of Iran, the plains of Turkey, the deserts of the Levant, the lands north of the Sahara and all coasts in between. The story of the region, as is so often the case of places stuck between foreign players, is the story of trade, exchange and conflict. The traditional powers of the region are Turkey and Iran &mdash; Saudi Arabia and Egypt are the current Arab powers &mdash; and their competition for influence over the region&#39;s weaker states makes the Middle East and North Africa an arena of violence and instability.</p>

The Middle East and North Africa encompasses the Arabian Peninsula, the mountains of Iran, the plains of Turkey, the deserts of the Levant, the lands north of the Sahara and all coasts in between.

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As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

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Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on Dec. 26, 2025. 

Israel establishing military facilities in Somaliland would invite Houthi attacks against the territory and raise the likelihood of renewed disruptions to Red Sea shipping.


Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Raises the Stakes Along the Red Sea Corridor 

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How has U.S. interest in the Middle East evolved over time? 

Essential Geopolitics: A Historical Look Back on U.S.-Middle East Relations

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The Bulgarian flag and the European flag waving in the wind.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Bulgaria Adopts the Euro, U.S.-Venezuela Tensions Persist

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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi walks alongside Oman's Deputy Prime Minister for Defence Affairs Sayyid Shihab bin Tariq al-Said upon his arrival in Muscat on Dec. 17, 2025.

Global Trade

New trade pacts offer gains in market access and investment but India's protectionist stance on agriculture and dairy remains an obstacle to deals with the United States and European Union. 


Oman and New Zealand Deals Indicate India's Push To Diversify Trade Partnerships

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On Geopolitics

Yemenis gather during a rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which wants to revive an independent South Yemen, as they wave the old South Yemen flag in Khormaksar Square, in the coastal port city of Aden on Dec. 14, 2025. 

Achieving South Arabian independence will require Yemen's Southern Transitional Council to overcome the historical challenges that have long plagued the governance of Yemen writ large, like tribalism and regionalism.

The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence

YemenYemenis rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council on Dec. 14, 2025.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Escalating tensions and potential violence between the Southern Transitional Council and Saudi-backed forces create security vacuums that Houthi rebels will likely exploit.



Yemen's Anti-Houthi Bloc Is Fracturing

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A destroyed church is seen in Mosul, Iraq.

The Islamic State's main threat to the West in 2026 will remain its ability to inspire lone-actor violence, though in the coming years the group's African, Afghan and Syrian branches may become increasingly capable of directing mass casualty attacks in Western countries.

The Islamic State's Enduring Threat to the West

People walk through a main square in Algeria's capital of Algiers on Sept. 15, 2024.

By introducing Sharia-compliant debt instruments, the Algerian government aims to tap into significant informal savings and diversify its funding sources while avoiding external debt. 

Algeria's Islamic Bonds an Incomplete Step Toward Diversifying Government Revenues

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A container ship arrives Oct. 10 at the Port of Oakland, California. In 2026, political calculations among major global players will significantly shape international affairs.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

In 2026, political calculations among major global players will significantly shape international affairs.

2026 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Dec. 29 to reverse Israel's West Bank policies amid U.S. concerns that settlement expansion and violent Israeli settlers could undermine the Gaza ceasefire and stall efforts to expand the Abraham Accords, Axios reported on Dec. 30.

U.S., Israel: U.S. Pressures Israel To Reverse West Bank Policies, Israel Curbs Humanitarian Work in Gaza

Iraq's parliament convened for the first time since the Nov. 11 elections and elected the parliamentary speaker, Haibet Al-Halbousi, who is a member of the Takadum, or Progress, party, AP reported on Dec. 29.

Iraq: Parliament Elects Speaker in First Session After November Elections

Saudi Arabia said its national security constitutes a "red line" it will defend, hours after the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen struck vehicles and cargo in Hadramawt province that it said were supplied by a foreign military to southern separatist forces, Reuters reported on Dec. 30.

Yemen: Saudi Arabia Strikes Yemeni Separatist Arms Shipment, Allegedly Supplied by UAE

Syrian security forces imposed a one-day curfew in Latakia province after four people were killed in recent protests there, state media reported on Dec. 30. 

Syria: Damascus Imposes Curfew in Latakia Amid Alawite Unrest

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said he tasked Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni with hearing the "legitimate demands" of protesters, the president announced in a Dec. 29 post on X. 

Iran: Tehran Tries To Defuse Protests With Dialogue, Central Bank Chief Resignation

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with U.S. President Donald Trump at the latter's Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida and discussed the second phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza, as well as regional security threats from Hamas and Iran, Al Jazeera reported on Dec. 29.

U.S., Israel: Netanyahu, Trump Meet in Florida, Discuss Regional Security Issues, Gaza Ceasefire

U.S.-Iran Relations

The governments of Somalia's Jubaland and Puntland states skipped a meeting convened by Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to discuss plans to protect the country's territorial integrity following Israel's Dec. 26 recognition of the independence Somaliland, a breakaway region, Hiiraan Online reported on Dec. 29.

Somalia: Puntland and Jubaland Skip Meeting With Federal Government Over Israeli Recognition of Somaliland

Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, warned neighboring countries not to support the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, stressing that Sudan had the right to "defend [its] borders" and would be able to "reach [those who aid the RSF] anywhere," Sudan Tribune reported on Dec. 28.

Sudan: Al-Burhan Warns Against Backing RSF Amid Mounting Speculation of Ethiopian Involvement

Middle East and North Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Israel: U.S. Pressures Israel To Reverse West Bank Policies, Israel Curbs Humanitarian Work in Gaza

Iraq: Parliament Elects Speaker in First Session After November Elections

Yemen: Saudi Arabia Strikes Yemeni Separatist Arms Shipment, Allegedly Supplied by UAE

Syria: Damascus Imposes Curfew in Latakia Amid Alawite Unrest

Iran: Tehran Tries To Defuse Protests With Dialogue, Central Bank Chief Resignation

U.S., Israel: Netanyahu, Trump Meet in Florida, Discuss Regional Security Issues, Gaza Ceasefire

Somalia: Puntland and Jubaland Skip Meeting With Federal Government Over Israeli Recognition of Somaliland

Sudan: Al-Burhan Warns Against Backing RSF Amid Mounting Speculation of Ethiopian Involvement

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