Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

United Kingdom

Economics

The Gulf Cooperation Council and the United Kingdom signed a free-trade agreement (FTA) that, according to some estimates, could add $5 billion per year to the U.K. economy over the long term, the Financial Times reported May 20.

Global: GCC and the U.K. Sign Free Trade Agreement

United States

Iran

Military & Security

Politics

U.S.-Iran Relations

U.S. President Donald Trump announced in a May 18 Truth Social post that he had called off a planned May 19 military attack on Iran following requests from Qatari, Saudi and Emirati leaders, who reportedly informed Trump that negotiations on a deal that includes "NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR IRAN" were progressing.

U.S., Iran: Trump Calls Off Planned May 19 Attack on Iran as Negotiations Reportedly Progress

Energy

The United Arab Emirates' Ministry of Defense reported in a May 17 X post that air defenses successfully intercepted two drones, while a third drone started a fire at an electrical generator outside the inner perimeter of the Barakah nuclear power plant; a presidential adviser suggested in a May 18 X post that Iran or one of its proxies was behind the attack.

UAE, Iran, U.S.: Drone Attack on Emirati Nuclear Power Plant

India

During Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the United Arab Emirates, both sides agreed on a framework for a strategic defense partnership, Reuters reported on May 15.

India: New Delhi Signs Defense and Energy Agreements With UAE

The UAE government said that construction of the West-East Pipeline, intended to double oil export capacity through Fujairah by 2027, would be fast-tracked, Reuters reported May 15. 

UAE, Iran: UAE Fast-Tracks New Oil Bypass Pipeline

Over the last two months, the United Arab Emirates has carried out multiple military strikes against Iran, The Wall Street Journal reported on May 11, citing people familiar with the matter. 

UAE: Report Confirms UAE Military Strikes on Iran in April

On May 7, senior U.S. officials told a Fox News reporter that the United States had struck Iran's Qeshm island and Bandar Abbas, though they added that this was not a resumption of the war, and the strikes appear to be limited in scope.

U.S., Iran: U.S. Launches Military Strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas

Saudi Arabia suspended U.S. rights to use Prince Sultan Air Base and Saudi airspace to support President Donald Trump's short-lived Project Freedom guiding mission in the Strait of Hormuz, NBC News reported on May 6.

U.S., Saudi Arabia: Riyadh Effectively Vetoed the U.S.' Project Freedom

Assessments

Egypt

Israel

Jordan

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Syria

Turkey

Yemen

Right-wing activists gather with Israeli flags outside the Damascus Gate of the walled Old City of Jerusalem on May 26, 2025, during a flag march for Jerusalem Day, commemorating the Israeli army's 1967 capture of the city's eastern sector during the Arab-Israeli war.

Israel's quest for middle-power status will be defined by its ability to unify its Jerusalem core, which has remained divided throughout the modern state's history.

The Modern Geopolitics of Israel

Social Issues

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Gulf states' push to employ more local citizens in the private sector will help advance their economies and reduce public wage bills, but it will also create new risks for businesses that have traditionally relied on cheap foreign labor.

The Future of Work in the GCC: Localization, Competition and Business Risks

Commercial vessels are seen offshore in Dubai on March 11, 2026.

While recent revelations about the airstrikes indicate a shift in both countries' risk calculations, the UAE's hawkish, Israel-aligned posture poses a greater threat of Iranian retaliation than Saudi Arabia's more restrained approach. 

The UAE and Saudi Arabia Enter the War Against Iran, but With Separate Strategies

Snapshots

People wave Iranian pre-1979 Islamic Revolution and American flags while members of the Iranian community celebrate in front of the Federal Building on March 1, in Los Angeles. 

The recent exchange of fire around the Strait of Hormuz reflects calculated efforts by Washington and Tehran to re-establish deterrence and project strength, complicating already fragile negotiations.


Iran and U.S. Exchange Fire, Further Straining Ceasefire

An Emirates Boeing 777 aircraft prepares for landing as a smoke plume rises from an ongoing fire near Dubai International Airport in Dubai on March 16.

A military response from the United States aiming to compel Iranian concessions without committing to ground operations could trigger a prolonged cycle of retaliatory attacks between U.S. allies and Iran.


Iran, U.S. Ceasefire at Elevated Risk of Collapse After Iran Attacks UAE

The skyline of Dubai is seen on March 11, 2026.

The UAE's exit will enable it to boost production more quickly once shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, while hindering OPEC's ability to manage the subsequent price drops.

The UAE's Exit From OPEC Further Diminishes the Oil Cartel's Relevance

The city skyline in Dubai is seen at sunset.

Although Gulf capitals are increasingly investing in mid-tier autonomy and offensive capabilities, achieving total strategic independence remains constrained by their enduring need for high-end American systems.

The Future of GCC Defense and Security Strategies in a Changing Middle East

Flatlining population growth will leave the Gulf Arab states reliant on specialized, high-tech militaries that are supplanted by foreign forces, exposing them to various long-term security vulnerabilities.

The Demographic Drag on Gulf States' Military Strength

Media

Cuba

Mexico

Venezuela

China

Taiwan

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Second-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Second-Quarter Forecast Webcast

The Burj Khalifa skyscraper (L) and the Burj al-Arab hotel (R) on March 11 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. With further Iranian provocation, several Gulf Cooperation Council states would be willing to join the war against Iran, but doing so would likely deepen Iran's targeting of their critical infrastructure, exacerbate the globally disruptive impacts of the war and potentially pull the GCC into a permanently hostile relationship with Iran.

Joining in could deepen Iran's targeting of GCC critical infrastructure, exacerbate the globally disruptive impacts of the war and pull the bloc into a permanently hostile relationship with Iran.

Will the Gulf States Join the Iran War, and What Would Happen if They Did?

Europe

A medicine distributor stores Mounjaro (tirzepatide) self-injecting GLP-1 prefilled pens and vials in a fridge at his office in Thane, India, on March 20, 2026. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

India's pharmaceutical and medical technology sectors are set to grow significantly over the next several years amid manufacturing incentives, regulatory reforms and trade deals.

The Growth Outlook for India's Pharmaceutical Sector Remains Strong, Despite Global Uncertainties

People walk along the corniche area on the occasion of Eid al-Fitr, marking the end of the holy month of Ramadan, in Abu Dhabi on March 20, 2026.

Global Trade

Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will compel Gulf Cooperation Council states to invest in alternative trade routes and more resilient physical infrastructure.

Gulf Arab States, Shaken by Iran War, Plan Economic Pivot

The United Arab Emirates is located on the southwestern edge of the Arabian Peninsula. To its west is Saudi Arabia and to its east is Oman. Iran is only a few miles north, across the Persian Gulf. With desert in its west and south, dry mountains in its east and the warm waters of the Persian Gulf to the north, the United Arab Emirates' climate is unable to support agriculture beyond small-scale oases and camel herds. The country is divided into three broad regions: the coastal harbors of the Gulf, bounded by the sandy desert of the Rub al-Khali, or Empty Quarter; the interior, where settlements cluster around oases; and the northeast, which is broken up by the Al Hajar Mountains.      There are no natural rivers and few timber supplies in the United Arab Emirates, and nearly all the country's drinkable water is trapped beneath oases. In the premodern era, citizens mainly survived off piracy, trade and pearling, and the most powerful settlement was the emirate of Ras al-Khaimah near the Al Hajar Mountains. After the discovery of oil in the 1962, power shifted permanently to the more southern Abu Dhabi, which holds 94 percent of the country's proven oil reserves. These coastal cities are the core of the country. Founder Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan established the United Arab Emirates &mdash; the Arab world's only successful federation &mdash; in 1971 and ruled until his death in 2004. At that time, his son and current president Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan took over power.      The United Arab Emirates seeks to maximize its independence while warding off the influence and control of more powerful regional players Saudi Arabia and Iran. To do this, it has leveraged its energy supply and strategic location to secure alliances with extra-regional powers like the United States. Utilizing its oil receipts, the United Arab Emirates has imported foreign labor from South and East Asia, as well as the Arab world. Combining that labor with global technology, the country has rapidly transformed itself from a desert backwater to a key transport hub, tourist destination and regional military power.  

SITUATION REPORTS

Global: GCC and the U.K. Sign Free Trade Agreement

U.S., Iran: Trump Calls Off Planned May 19 Attack on Iran as Negotiations Reportedly Progress

UAE, Iran, U.S.: Drone Attack on Emirati Nuclear Power Plant

India: New Delhi Signs Defense and Energy Agreements With UAE

UAE, Iran: UAE Fast-Tracks New Oil Bypass Pipeline

UAE: Report Confirms UAE Military Strikes on Iran in April

U.S., Iran: U.S. Launches Military Strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas

U.S., Saudi Arabia: Riyadh Effectively Vetoed the U.S.' Project Freedom

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