Somalia

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Military & Security

Politics

Somali Foreign Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi publicly criticized Sivuyile Bam, the acting head of the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), labeling him a "threat to Somalia's development and security" and accusing him of sympathizing with the militant group al Shabaab, Garowe Online reported on April 18. 

Somalia: Minister Accuses AU Mission Head of Bias Amid Escalating al Shabaab Threat

Comoros

Djibouti

Eritrea

Kenya

Madagascar

Mauritius

Mozambique

Seychelles

South Africa

Tanzania

China

India

Economics

India is conducting its largest-ever naval exercise off the east coast of Africa, known as the Africa-India Key Maritime Engagement, or AIKEYME, with 10 other African countries on April 13-18, Radio France Internationale reported on April 16.

East Africa: India Holds Its Largest Naval Exercise With East African Countries

Sudan

United Kingdom

The Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, imposed a curfew in the Darfuri city of El Fasher after the rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, seized the neighboring Zamzam refugee camp, Sudan Tribune reported on April 14.

Sudan: SAF Imposes Curfew in El Fasher as U.K. Hosts Peace Conference With Regional Players

Europe

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan agreed to launch negotiations for an EU-UAE free trade agreement, with von der Leyen expressing EU willingness to conclude a deal within months, Reuters reported on April 10. 

EU, UAE: Leaders Launch Negotiations for Free Trade Agreement

United States

Bahrain

Israel

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Turkey's Trade Minister Omer Bolat said that Turkey would try to negotiate the 10% tariffs imposed on the country with the U.S. Department of Commerce and Trade and would attend the Turkish-American Conference in D.C. in May, Reuters reported April 4.

Turkey, MENA, U.S.: Turkey Will Seek to Negotiate U.S. Tariffs

South Sudan

Central African Republic

Chad

Uganda

Yasir al-Atta, the deputy commander in chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces, said Chad’s N’Djamena and Amdjarass airports were "legitimate military targets" and vowed to retaliate against the “corrupt centres of influence” in South Sudan, Reuters reported on March 24.

Sudan: SAF General Threatens Retaliatory Action Against Chad, South Sudan 

Yemen

The United States continued airstrikes against Yemen's Houthi rebels for the 10th consecutive day, targeting dozens of sites belonging to the group, NBC reported on March 24. 

U.S., Yemen: Widespread U.S. Airstrikes Continue, Targeting Houthi Leadership

Algeria

Iran

Iraq

Kazakhstan

Russia

Energy

The eight OPEC+ countries participating in 2.2 million barrels per days of voluntary oil productions cuts -- Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates -- agreed to continue with their previously announced plans to begin unwinding their voluntary product cuts between April 1, 2025, and September 2026, OPEC said in a statement on March 3.

Global: Eight OPEC+ Members Agree To Phase Out Voluntary Production Cuts Starting in April

Assessments

Yemeni soldiers stand guard during a protest against the United States on April 18, 2025 in Sanaa, Yemen. 

As intensified U.S. airstrikes fail to halt Houthi attacks on Israel and Red Sea shipping, Washington is increasingly likely to seek on-the-ground Yemeni partners to pressure the militant movement.


In Yemen, the U.S.'s Anti-Houthi Campaign Raises the Specter of a Government Ground Offensive

Egypt

Palestinian Territories

Philippe Lazzarini (C), the commissioner general for the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, attends a humanitarian conference for Gaza in Cairo, Egypt, on Dec. 2, 2024, amid the continuing Israel-Hamas war.

Egypt's economic limitations will continue to restrain its assertiveness in foreign policy, constraining its ability to project power in the region.

Egypt's Economic Priorities Sideline Assertive Foreign Policy

A rally on Jan. 24 in Sanaa, the Houthi-controlled capital of Yemen. Should the United States attack Iranian ships and advisers supporting the Houthi rebel group, Houthi and Iranian retaliation would become likelier to extend beyond U.S. and Israeli targets to include regional oil and gas installations.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

U.S.-Iran Relations

Should the United States also attack Iranian ships and advisers supporting the Yemeni rebel group, Houthi and Iranian retaliation would become likelier to extend beyond U.S. and Israeli targets to include regional oil and gas installations. 

U.S. Strikes on Houthis Risk Embroiling Iran and the Regional Energy Industry

Supporters of Yemen's Houthi movement brandish weapons and chant slogans as they take part in a protest staged in solidarity with the Palestinian people in Gaza on Jan. 17, 2025, in Sanaa, Yemen. 

The Houthis' intervention in the Israel-Hamas war has bolstered their military capabilities and domestic influence, which could embolden them to launch renewed offensives in southern Yemen.

What Will Yemen's Houthis Do With Their New-Found Strength?

Pakistan

The entrance to the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C.

Ahead of the first review of its newest IMF program, Pakistan seeks creditor assurances and a broader tax base.

Pakistan's Path to Meeting IMF Demands

Angola

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

Nigeria

Argentina

Brazil

Canada

Ecuador

Mexico

Jordan

Syria

Tunisia

Taiwan

Ukraine

Belarus

World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Cyber

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

A billboard depicting a Houthi military official who was killed during Yemen's civil war overlooks the Yemeni capital city of Sanaa on Jan. 2, 2025. 

When its increased attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen likely fail to deter the militants, Israel will escalate further, potentially spreading the conflict into the Gulf states and restarting the Yemeni civil war.

Israel's Expanding Campaign in Yemen Risks Reigniting the Civil War

Abu Mohammed al-Golani (C), the head of Syria's leading insurgent group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, speaks during a press conference near Syria's northern Bab al Hawa border crossing with Turkey late on March 12, 2024.

Rival Gulf Arab states will pursue divergent goals amid Syria's evolving political transition, raising the likelihood of factionalism and resurging violence in the war-torn country. 

Gulf States' Competing Interests Could Disrupt Syria's Political Transition

Columns

On Geopolitics

Rebel fighters celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, in the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, after seizing control of the city.

Syria, the geopolitical proving ground for virtually every major regional power, may be hobbled and damaged after 13 years of civil war. But it still gets a vote in its destiny. 

Syria Sets Out Toward a New and Uncertain Future

Fighters loyal to Yemen's Houthi group chant in Sanaa, Yemen, on Sept. 21, 2024, during a military parade marking the anniversary of the Houthis’ 2014 takeover of the capital.

The Houthis' economic vulnerabilities, along with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates' desire to avoid being re-entangled in Yemen's decade-long civil war, will reduce the risk of a major escalation in Yemen. 

Gulf States Work to Avoid Major Escalation With Yemen’s Houthis

Ethiopia

Indonesia

Moldova

Vehicles pass by a banner thanking outgoing Indonesian President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo and congratulating President-elect Prabowo Subianto and Vice President-elect Gibran Rakabuming Raka ahead of their Oct. 20 inauguration in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Oct. 17, 2024.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An Impeachment Case in Kenya, an Inauguration in Indonesia

As Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 enters its final five years, the Saudi government is likely to deepen reforms designed to improve the country's economic attractiveness and performance. But as it struggles to compete with its neighbors' social reforms and absorb potential global geopolitical shocks, Riyadh could adopt more coercive policies at times.

Evaluating Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 as It Enters the Home Stretch

The United Arab Emirates is located on the southwestern edge of the Arabian Peninsula. To its west is Saudi Arabia and to its east is Oman. Iran is only a few miles north, across the Persian Gulf. With desert in its west and south, dry mountains in its east and the warm waters of the Persian Gulf to the north, the United Arab Emirates' climate is unable to support agriculture beyond small-scale oases and camel herds. The country is divided into three broad regions: the coastal harbors of the Gulf, bounded by the sandy desert of the Rub al-Khali, or Empty Quarter; the interior, where settlements cluster around oases; and the northeast, which is broken up by the Al Hajar Mountains.      There are no natural rivers and few timber supplies in the United Arab Emirates, and nearly all the country's drinkable water is trapped beneath oases. In the premodern era, citizens mainly survived off piracy, trade and pearling, and the most powerful settlement was the emirate of Ras al-Khaimah near the Al Hajar Mountains. After the discovery of oil in the 1962, power shifted permanently to the more southern Abu Dhabi, which holds 94 percent of the country's proven oil reserves. These coastal cities are the core of the country. Founder Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan established the United Arab Emirates &mdash; the Arab world's only successful federation &mdash; in 1971 and ruled until his death in 2004. At that time, his son and current president Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan took over power.      The United Arab Emirates seeks to maximize its independence while warding off the influence and control of more powerful regional players Saudi Arabia and Iran. To do this, it has leveraged its energy supply and strategic location to secure alliances with extra-regional powers like the United States. Utilizing its oil receipts, the United Arab Emirates has imported foreign labor from South and East Asia, as well as the Arab world. Combining that labor with global technology, the country has rapidly transformed itself from a desert backwater to a key transport hub, tourist destination and regional military power.  

SITUATION REPORTS

Somalia: Minister Accuses AU Mission Head of Bias Amid Escalating al Shabaab Threat

East Africa: India Holds Its Largest Naval Exercise With East African Countries

Sudan: SAF Imposes Curfew in El Fasher as U.K. Hosts Peace Conference With Regional Players

EU, UAE: Leaders Launch Negotiations for Free Trade Agreement

Turkey, MENA, U.S.: Turkey Will Seek to Negotiate U.S. Tariffs

Sudan: SAF General Threatens Retaliatory Action Against Chad, South Sudan

U.S., Yemen: Widespread U.S. Airstrikes Continue, Targeting Houthi Leadership

Global: Eight OPEC+ Members Agree To Phase Out Voluntary Production Cuts Starting in April

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