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Bangladesh

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Politics

What major challenges will the incoming government face?

What To Expect From Bangladesh's Upcoming Elections

Assessments

United States

Iran

Japan

Thailand

Campaign posters Feb. 6 of candidates running in the upcoming Japanese House of Representatives election, in Inagi, Tokyo prefecture.

Military & Security

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Japan Holds Snap Elections, U.S. Weighs Options After Iran Talks

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

United Arab Emirates

Ukraine

Russia

Emirati flags on Feb. 4 in Abu Dhabi, UAE. On Feb. 4-5, delegations from Russia, Ukraine and the United States held a second round of trilateral talks in the United Arab Emirates.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The talks are unlikely to produce a near-term settlement, as Russia will continue to press its territorial demands while using diplomacy to manage sanctions pressure and build leverage ahead of a spring-summer offensive.

The Limits of Russia-Ukraine-U.S. Talks

Indonesia

Visitors take pictures in front of an electronic board displaying falling stock prices at the Indonesia Stock Exchange in Jakarta on Jan. 29, 2026.

Economics

The episode exposes structural risks embedded in the president's governance that could threaten investor confidence -- and with it, Indonesia's economic growth and manufacturing competitiveness.

Lessons Learned From Indonesia's Market Rout

People walk past campaign posters in Bangkok on Feb. 2, 2026, ahead of Thailand's Feb. 8 general election.

Thailand's Feb. 8 general election and constitutional referendum are unlikely to deliver a decisive political reset and will instead risk extending a familiar cycle of constrained reform and policy caution amid heightened security and economic pressures.

Elections and Referendum Unlikely to End Thailand's Cycle of Constrained Governance

China

Russian soldiers wear chemical protection suits as they stand next to a military fueler on the base of a prime mover of Russian Topol intercontinental ballistic missile during a training session at the Serpukhov's military missile forces research institute some 100km outside Moscow on April 6, 2010.

Over time, this will intensify an ongoing buildup of nuclear capabilities across the globe and make crises involving nuclear powers more unpredictable and prone to miscalculations. 


Implications of the Last Major U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control Agreement's Expiration

U.S.-China Relations

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Feb. 5, 2026

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (top, 5th from left) speaks during the election campaign rally on Jan. 29, 2026, in Himeji, Japan. 

Outcomes for the Feb. 8 snap ballot include a decisive victory for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party, a weakened conservative coalition and an opposition win.

Japan's Lower House Elections: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

Turkey

Europe

A digital satellite illustration shows Europe at night.

Energy

The EU enlargement chief's upcoming visit to Turkey signals an attempt to balance cautious engagement with clear strategic interests, rather than an imminent breakthrough on the country's stalled accession process.

Understanding the EU's Strategic Reengagement With Turkey

India

A freight train on Aug. 26, 2025, in Ajmer India.

A U.S.-India trade deal will bring some relief to Indian exporters, but ambiguities over its scope, implementation timeline and myriad other flashpoints will risk undermining it.

An India-U.S. Trade Deal Will Face Ongoing Hurdles

Iraq

Former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki (center) delivers a speech during a campaign rally in Baghdad ahead of parliamentary elections on Nov. 7, 2025. 

If former Prime Minister al-Maliki overcomes challenges to form a new cabinet, it would likely deepen sectarian divisions, embolden Iran-backed militias and increase Iraq's exposure to U.S. financial and/or military pressure.

In Iraq, the Potential Return of a Divisive Leader Raises Alarm

Latest

Cuba

Mexico

American Airlines planes sit on the tarmac at Jose Marti International Airport in Havana on Feb. 9, 2026. 

Facing imminent economic collapse and the loss of key allies, the Cuban government will likely yield to U.S. demands for market liberalization to avoid a total breakdown of state authority while attempting to preserve political control.

Economic Concessions to U.S. Offer Path for Regime Survival in Cuba

United Kingdom

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer leaves Downing Street on Feb. 2, 2026, in London. 

While the crisis could see Labour elect a new leader in the coming months, broad party consensus and fiscal constraints make sharp policy shifts unlikely, limiting the risk of sustained market volatility.

In the U.K., Starmer's Leadership Struggles Reach a Tipping Point

Japanese Prime Minister and President of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Sanae Takaichi reacts as she speaks with media on the day of lower house elections at the LDP headquarters in Tokyo on Feb. 8, 2026. 

The LDP's decisive lower house victory will enable Prime Minister Takaichi to boost social and defense spending and strengthen ties with the U.S., though at the expense of Japan’s relations with China and South Korea.

Election Landslide Stabilizes Japanese Politics, Cements Defense Modernization

Tunisia

Supporters of Tunisia's General Labour Union (UGTT) wave the national flag during a rally in Tunis on Aug. 21, 2025.

If the UGTT fails to resolve internal disputes and stage an effective national strike, President Saied will likely launch an expanded crackdown that further weakens the powerful labor union and, consequently, its private-sector bargaining power.

In Tunisia, UGTT Infighting Risks Playing Into President Saied's Hands

Pakistan

A burned-out vehicle along a road on the outskirts of the Pakistani city of Quetta on Feb. 1, 2026, a day after an attack by Baloch separatists. The intensifying insurgency will exacerbate strains on Pakistan's security forces, worsening the country's security challenges and further constraining foreign investment interest.

The intensifying insurgency will exacerbate strains on Pakistan's security forces, worsening the country's security challenges and further constraining foreign investment interest.

With Coordinated Attacks, Pakistan's Baloch Insurgency Intensifies

A man walks past a mural painted on the outer walls of the former U.S. embassy in Tehran, Iran, on Feb. 1, 2026.

Despite recent momentum toward restarting talks, a deal will likely remain elusive due to the U.S.'s maximalist demands and Iran's red lines, sustaining the risk of U.S. (and likely Israeli) military action in the coming weeks. 

Can New U.S.-Iran Talks Avert a Greater Conflict?

Columns

On Geopolitics

Syria

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Poland

The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other. 

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

Global Trade

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

On Security

U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.

While Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable, his extensive use of U.S. military force abroad over the past year offers insight into the likely direction of his foreign policy for the remainder of his term.


Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Saudi Arabia

Yemen

Yemenis gather during a rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which wants to revive an independent South Yemen, as they wave the old South Yemen flag in Khormaksar Square, in the coastal port city of Aden on Dec. 14, 2025. 

Achieving South Arabian independence will require Yemen's Southern Transitional Council to overcome the historical challenges that have long plagued the governance of Yemen writ large, like tribalism and regionalism.

The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence

Taiwan

Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.

The 2025 Taiwan National Defense Report reflects Taipei's growing intent and tactical capabilities for deterrence by denial against a Chinese invasion, but it also highlights persistent challenges that contribute to a continually rising risk of conflict through 2028.

Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Hamas militants arrive to secure the area as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza on Dec. 1, 2025. 

In this phase of the conflict, Israel and Hamas aim to break one another's political will not through widespread violence but through attrition and exhaustion.

Hamas and Israel Evolve the Gaza Conflict

The White House updated its U.S.-India trade deal fact sheet to change wording on agricultural goods, removing references to pulses such as lentils and chickpeas, The Economic Times reported on Feb. 11.

India: U.S. Revises Statement on India Trade Deal 

Nigeria

The United States plans to deploy roughly 200 troops to Nigeria to assist the Nigerian military in its fight against Islamist groups, The Washington Post reported on Feb. 10. 

Nigeria, U.S.: Washington To Deploy 200 Troops to Nigeria

Venezuela

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

The U.S. Treasury Department issued on Feb. 10 a general license authorizing the provision of U.S. goods, technology, software or services for the exploration, development or production of oil and gas in Venezuela, Reuters reported the same day.

Venezuela, U.S.: Washington Allows Venezuela To Import U.S. Equipment and Software for Oil Production

Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi said, "We should move quickly towards holding a national referendum on constitutional reform," Jiji Press reported on Feb. 10. 

Japan: Takaichi's Constitutional Reform Path Is a Treacherous One

Egypt

The Egyptian Parliament approved a Cabinet reshuffle to appoint more than a dozen new ministers, including those overseeing housing, planning, investment, foreign trade and defense, though the minister for foreign affairs remained in his post, Reuters reported on Feb. 10.

Egypt: Cairo Reshuffles Cabinet in Bid To Address High Cost of Living

The European Parliament's trade committee agreed on a common position on the July 2025 EU-U.S. trade framework agreement, backing amendments ahead of a plenary vote, Politico reported Feb. 10. 

EU, U.S.: European Parliament Backs Safeguards in EU-U.S. Tariff Deal, Paving Way for Plenary Vote

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is confirmed to travel to the United States on Feb. 19 to finalize a long-negotiated trade pact that slashes U.S. tariffs on Indonesian goods from 32% to 19% and requires Indonesia to eliminate tariffs on 99% of U.S. exports, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 11.

Indonesia, U.S.: Subianto To Finalize Trade Deal, Participate in Board of Peace Meeting

The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, or FAA, late on Feb. 10 closed airspace in a 10 nautical mile radius around Texas' El Paso International Airport and an additional area west of the neighboring community of Santa Teresa, New Mexico, along the border with Mexico, for "special security reasons," stating that the restrictions would last until Feb. 20, NBC reported on Feb. 11.

U.S., Mexico: FAA Announces, Then Lifts 10-Day Airspace Closure Around El Paso

Armenia

Azerbaijan

U.S. Vice President JD Vance met Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Baku and signed a Charter on Strategic Partnership, formalizing expanded cooperation on security, energy, regional connectivity and technology, Azertac reported on Feb. 10.

Azerbaijan, U.S.: Washington Elevates Baku as Regional Partner

Colombia

Iranian newspapers one of them (R) with a headline in Persian reading "Iran is ready for a big response," Jan. 27 in Tehran in Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump is considering a range of military options against Iran.

The Weekly Rundown: The U.S. and Colombian Presidents Meet, The Threat of U.S. Strikes on Iran

A Ukrainian serviceman from the 24th mechanized brigade prepares a Magura night drone to flight toward the front line in the area of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region late on April 29, 2025.

Ukraine's success in using cheap drones against Russia reveals how smaller states can leverage accessible technologies to impose disproportionate and sustained costs on a materially superior adversary.

Drones Are Redefining Asymmetric Warfare

Kenya

Madagascar

South Africa

Chile

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Lebanon

Morocco

Philippines

Serbia

Nepal

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

South Korea

South Korea's health ministry on Feb. 10 announced a plan to raise the national medical school enrollment quota from 3,058 students in 2026 to 3,548 in 2027, 3,671 in 2028 and 2029, and 3,871 in 2030 and 2031.

South Korea: Government Medical Enrollment Plan Risks New Protests

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

In the U.K., Starmer's Leadership Struggles Reach a Tipping Point

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

India: U.S. Revises Statement on India Trade Deal

Nigeria, U.S.: Washington To Deploy 200 Troops to Nigeria

Venezuela, U.S.: Washington Allows Venezuela To Import U.S. Equipment and Software for Oil Production

Japan: Takaichi's Constitutional Reform Path Is a Treacherous One

Egypt: Cairo Reshuffles Cabinet in Bid To Address High Cost of Living

EU, U.S.: European Parliament Backs Safeguards in EU-U.S. Tariff Deal, Paving Way for Plenary Vote

Indonesia, U.S.: Subianto To Finalize Trade Deal, Participate in Board of Peace Meeting

U.S., Mexico: FAA Announces, Then Lifts 10-Day Airspace Closure Around El Paso

Azerbaijan, U.S.: Washington Elevates Baku as Regional Partner

South Korea: Government Medical Enrollment Plan Risks New Protests

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