Assessments

Somalia

Sudan

Israel

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (R) inspect the honor guard during an official welcoming ceremony at the presidential complex in Ankara, Turkey, on June 22, 2022.

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

After years of discord, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are finding common ground as they increasingly position themselves against Emirati- and Israeli-backed regional initiatives. 

Saudi Arabia and Turkey's New Regional Alignment

United States

Iran

China

Germany

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the press Feb. 2 in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington. U.S. President Donald Trump will deliver the annual State of the Union address to Congress on Feb. 24.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Trump Threatens Iran, Pledges To Reimpose Tariffs on Different Grounds

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Snapshots

Canada

Mexico

Japan

South Korea

Vietnam

Europe

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing at the White House on Feb. 20, 2026, after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against Trump's use of emergency powers to implement international trade tariffs.

Global Trade

The Trump administration will use other trade authorities to replace many of the IEEPA tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court, meaning U.S. trading partners will remain incentivized to engage on trade matters.

What the Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Means for Trump and U.S. Trading Partners

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Egypt

Destroyed vehicles are strewn outside Sudan's finance ministry building in the capital Khartoum on Jan. 17, 2026, after nearly three years of devastating war in the country.

Ethiopia's apparent tilt toward the RSF paramilitary group in neighboring Sudan could trigger deadly border clashes and prompt the Sudanese military to deepen ties with Tigrayan forces.

Ethiopia Discreetly Dips Into Sudan's Civil War

Columns

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

On Geopolitics

France

United Kingdom

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Feb. 19, 2026

Ukraine

City authorities and businesses rebuild residential buildings damaged by Russian shelling in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on July 12, 2023.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

While European governments can fund Ukraine's war effort this year and next, securing the investment needed to rebuild damaged infrastructure will face significant political, economic and structural hurdles.

The Challenge of Rebuilding Ukraine's Economy

Algeria

The national flag of Algeria flies near the Bay of Algiers against the backdrop of the old town known as the Casbah and cargo containers in Algiers, Algeria, on Aug. 25, 2022.

Divergences between Algeria and the United Arab Emirates are poised to grow and may lead to a diplomatic break.

Algeria's Grievances With the UAE Deepen Amid Strategic Divergences

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Philippine Foreign Minister Theresa Lazaro speaks at a press conference during a Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting in Cebu City, the Philippines, on Jan. 29, 2026.

The coming year will test ASEAN's ability to maintain unity, manage crises and remain a credible regional forum amid rising internal security risks and a more fractured world order, particularly as the Philippines butts heads with China in the South China Sea.

Previewing the Philippines 2026 ASEAN Chairmanship

U.S. Vice President JD Vance's shadow is seen as he speaks during a press conference following a military briefing at the civilian military coordination center on Oct. 21, 2025, in Kiryat Gat, Israel. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Negotiations over a new Israel-U.S. security agreement signal a pivot in the bilateral relationship as Israel increasingly focuses on strengthening its domestic defense industry.

How Israel's Defense Sector Will Evolve Amid the Government's Push for Self-Reliance

Latest

Iceland

Icelandic flags are seen on a street in Reykjavik.

The prospect of a summer referendum on EU accession reflects a strategic pivot driven by heightened anxieties over transatlantic security.


In Iceland, Security Concerns, Domestic Politics Catalyze Renewed Debate Over EU Membership

Australia

European Union and Australian flags together.

European and Australian negotiators aim to strengthen supply chain resilience and hedge against growing global trade volatility.


The Strategic Logic Behind Revived Australia-EU Free Trade Talks 

A burned car is seen on a highway near Acatlan de Juarez, Jalisco state, Mexico, on Feb. 22, 2026. The car was allegedly set on fire by organized crime groups in response to the killing of Nemesio Oseguera "El Mencho," the top leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG).

The killing of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel's notorious leader will initially improve U.S.-Mexico ties, but the likely surge in cartel violence will pose long-term risks to businesses and eventually renew pressure for U.S. military action in Mexico.

What a Cartel Leader's Killing Means for Mexico's Security and U.S. Relations

Argentina

An aerial photo shows Argentinian police using a water cannon truck against protesters opposing labor reforms on Feb. 11, 2026, in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Although the labor reform is likely to be approved and may incrementally improve Argentina's hiring climate, its short-term economic impact will be limited.

Argentina's Milei Secures Senate Backing for Market-Oriented Labor Overhaul

Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul arrives at the Government House in Bangkok on Feb. 9, 2026.

The incumbent conservative party's victory will improve short-term political stability, but governance will remain constrained by coalition dynamics, entrenched institutions and uncertain constitutional reform.

Thailand Approves Constitutional Reform, Re-Elects Conservative Party

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer leaves Downing Street on Feb. 2, 2026, in London. 

While the crisis could see Labour elect a new leader in the coming months, broad party consensus and fiscal constraints make sharp policy shifts unlikely, limiting the risk of sustained market volatility.

In the U.K., Starmer's Leadership Struggles Reach a Tipping Point

Iraq

Libya

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Poland

The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other. 

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.

While Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable, his extensive use of U.S. military force abroad over the past year offers insight into the likely direction of his foreign policy for the remainder of his term.


Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office

Cyber

Science & Technology

U.S.-based artificial intelligence company Anthropic said three Chinese AI companies set up more than 24,000 fraudulent accounts with its Claude AI model to conduct "distillation" techniques that use data outputs to advance their own AI systems, The Wall Street Journal reported on Feb. 23. 

U.S., China: Anthropic Claims Chinese Companies Are Using Claude for Distillation

India

India's foreign ministry announced that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Israel from Feb. 25-26, Reuters reported on Feb. 24.

India, Israel: Modi To Visit Israel Feb. 25-26

The Egyptian government is open to supporting Ethiopia's push to gain maritime access to the Red Sea if Addis Ababa shows "flexibility" regarding the Nile waters dispute, The National reported on Feb. 23, quoting Egyptian sources.

Egypt, Ethiopia: Egypt Reportedly Ready To Support Ethiopia's Sea Access in Return for 'Flexibility' in Nile Talks

Talks between Somalia's federal government and the opposition Somali Future Council, or SFC, regarding Somalia's electoral model collapsed after both parties failed to reach an agreement, Somalia Today reported on Feb. 23. 

Somalia: Talks Between Federal Government and Opposition Over Electoral Model Collapse

Thai forces reported that Cambodian troops fired a grenade round near a patrol in eastern Sisaket province, prompting Thai return fire, AFP reported on Feb. 24.

Thailand, Cambodia: Forces Skirmish Along Disputed Border

Taiwan

China's Ministry of Commerce placed 20 Japanese entities on a full export control list and 20 others on a new watchlist, thereby restricting or conditioning exports of dual use goods, Nikkei Asia reported on Feb. 24.

China, Japan: Beijing Slaps More Export Controls on Tokyo

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will travel to China on Feb. 24 for his first official visit since taking office in May 2025, accompanied by a large business delegation, Reuters reported the same day.

Germany, China: Chancellor Friederich Merz Travels to Beijing

Chile

U.S. Ambassador to Chile Brandon Judd said on Feb. 23 that the U.S. government had warned Chile against pursuing a Chinese project for submarine cables before sanctioning three high-ranking Chilean officials over the project on Feb. 20, El Pais reported on Feb. 23.

U.S., Chile, China: U.S. Sanctions Chilean Officials Over Chinese Submarine Cable Project

Slovakia

Hungary

Russia

U.S. President Donald Trump (C) holds up his signature on the founding charter of the Board of Peace among other world leaders at the World Economic Forum on Jan. 22 in Davos, Switzerland.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: The Board of Peace Convenes, Russia-Ukraine-U.S. Talks in Geneva

Bangladesh

A man walks past campaign posters of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) chairman and Tarique Rahman in Dhaka on Feb. 13, 2026.

The transition from an interim administration will likely restore political stability, though social and fiscal pressures will still pose constraints for the new center-right government.

Bangladesh Nationalist Party Wins Big in First Election Since 2024 Uprising

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Yemenis gather during a rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which wants to revive an independent South Yemen, as they wave the old South Yemen flag in Khormaksar Square, in the coastal port city of Aden on Dec. 14, 2025. 

Achieving South Arabian independence will require Yemen's Southern Transitional Council to overcome the historical challenges that have long plagued the governance of Yemen writ large, like tribalism and regionalism.

The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence

China and Iran are close to reaching a deal for Iran to purchase Chinese-made CM-302 anti-ship cruise missiles, Reuters reported on Feb. 24.

China, Iran: Governments Negotiating Deal on Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles

The U.S. Trump administration is preparing to launch a number of new Section 232 investigations as part of its attempts to replace struck-down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, The Wall Street Journal reported on Feb. 23.

U.S.: Trump Administration Considers New National Security Tariff Investigations

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

In Iceland, Security Concerns, Domestic Politics Catalyze Renewed Debate Over EU Membership

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., China: Anthropic Claims Chinese Companies Are Using Claude for Distillation

India, Israel: Modi To Visit Israel Feb. 25-26

Egypt, Ethiopia: Egypt Reportedly Ready To Support Ethiopia's Sea Access in Return for 'Flexibility' in Nile Talks

Somalia: Talks Between Federal Government and Opposition Over Electoral Model Collapse

Thailand, Cambodia: Forces Skirmish Along Disputed Border

China, Japan: Beijing Slaps More Export Controls on Tokyo

Germany, China: Chancellor Friederich Merz Travels to Beijing

U.S., Chile, China: U.S. Sanctions Chilean Officials Over Chinese Submarine Cable Project

China, Iran: Governments Negotiating Deal on Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles

U.S.: Trump Administration Considers New National Security Tariff Investigations

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