Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: April 2, 2026

Europe

Hungary

 A campaign billboard featuring a portrait of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is seen in Budapest's 3rd district on March 27, 2026.

Economics

Energy

Military & Security

Politics

Social Issues

Hungary's April 12 parliamentary elections are primed to be the country's most competitive national vote since 2010 and may remove Prime Minister Viktor Orban's Fidesz party from power.

Hungary's Upcoming Elections May Unseat Orban After 16 Years

Americas

China

This photo, taken in Lima in November 2024, shows Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) and Peruvian President Dina Boluarte attending the inauguration ceremony for the Chinese-built and operated "megaport" in the small Peruvian town of Chancay.

Environment, Science & Technology

As Washington formalizes a new hemispheric doctrine centered on security and supply chain dominance, regional governments face mounting pressure to align their defense and economic policies with U.S. geopolitical interests.

How the U.S.'s Anti-China Strategy for Latin America Could Unfold

U.S.-China Relations

Columns

On Geopolitics

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Iran

Israel

Yemen

Houthi loyalists chant slogans on March 27, 2026, in Sanaa, Yemen, as they participate in a protest staged to show support for Iran in its ongoing war against the United States and Israel.

Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis will likely progressively expand their target set beyond Israel if the war intensifies, raising the risk of more economically disruptive attacks on regional shipping and energy infrastructure.

The Implications of the Houthis Joining the Iran War

Cyber

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The second quarter will test global resilience as lingering conflicts and energy shocks converge to heighten economic uncertainty and geopolitical volatility.

2026 Second-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

Cuba

Russia

People on March 15 in Tehran, Iran, clean up rubble from a missile attack. The Iran war will almost certainly continue through the next week amid Israeli threats to escalate and expand strikes due to Iranian attacks targeting Israeli civilians and the U.S. deployment of additional military assets to the region.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Iran War Continues, a European Parliament Delegation Visits China

U.S.-Iran Relations

Media

Podcasts

How will the trajectory of China-U.S. trade conversations change in light of conflict in the Middle East?

The Decision Advantage: The Impact of the Iran War on the Asia-Pacific Region

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

South Africa

A general view of power lines near the Lethabo power station between Vereeniging and Sasolburg, South Africa, on April 17, 2024.

Although South Africa's power sector reforms remain years from completion, their gradual advancement will still attract investment in energy projects that support the country's long-term energy security and decarbonization goals.

The Outlook for South Africa's Power Sector Reforms and Energy Security

Cars drive past a gas station in Ponte Leccia on the French Mediterranean island of Corsica on March 26, 2026. 

To address Iran-related energy disruptions, the European Union will likely opt for a patchwork of national relief measures, rather than a more comprehensive market intervention.

How the EU Is Responding to Its Latest Energy Crisis

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

The Burj Khalifa skyscraper (L) and the Burj al-Arab hotel (R) on March 11 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. With further Iranian provocation, several Gulf Cooperation Council states would be willing to join the war against Iran, but doing so would likely deepen Iran's targeting of their critical infrastructure, exacerbate the globally disruptive impacts of the war and potentially pull the GCC into a permanently hostile relationship with Iran.

Joining in could deepen Iran's targeting of GCC critical infrastructure, exacerbate the globally disruptive impacts of the war and pull the bloc into a permanently hostile relationship with Iran.

Will the Gulf States Join the Iran War, and What Would Happen if They Did?

Latest

Japan

South Korea

Taiwan

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (C) answers questions during a plenary session of the House of Representatives at Parliament on March 26 in Tokyo. Poor ties with China under Japan's new premier portend industrial disruptions in Japan, and supply chain and defense cooperation with regional partners like South Korea and the United States.

Poor ties with China under Japan's new premier portend industrial disruptions in Japan, and supply chain and defense cooperation with regional partners like South Korea and the United States.

A New Leader in Japan and an Old Feud With China

Newly elected opposition Kuomintang (KMT) leader Cheng Li-wun delivers a speech in Taipei on Nov. 1, 2025. 

The KMT's diplomatic outreach to Beijing may yield modest economic gains, but it will also hurt the party's electoral prospects, which could paradoxically raise the risk of military conflict in the coming years.

The Taiwanese Opposition's Plan To Revive Talks With China Will Likely Backfire

Snapshots

Nepal

Rastriya Swatantra Party leader Balendra Shah is sworn in as Nepal's new prime minister in Kathmandu on March 27, 2026.

Global Trade

Prolonged global supply chain disruptions and threats to foreign remittances linked to the war will constrain the new administration's ability to deliver on its economic promises.


New Nepalese Government's Agenda Threatened by Iran War Fallout

Italy

Opposition supporters celebrate the defeat of a referendum on justice reform March 23 in Rome. The defeat exposes limits to the Italian government's dominance, and may embolden the fragmented opposition and strain coalition unity.

The defeat of a highly politicized judicial reform referendum exposes limits to the Italian government's dominance, and may embolden the fragmented opposition and strain coalition unity.

What a Failed Italian Referendum Means for the Meloni Government

Demonstrators wave Iranian national flags and hold pictures of the country's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, at Enghelab Square in central Tehran on March 9, 2026.

The selection of hard-line cleric Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his slain father will entrench Tehran's resolve to continue the war and preserve its ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

Iran's New Supreme Leader Will Strengthen Hard-Liner Influence

People in Tehran look to the skies from a rooftop amid reports of widespread U.S. and Israeli attacks in Iran on Feb. 28, 2026.

The U.S. and Israel are pushing for regime change in Iran, though their attacks are most likely to yield an even more hostile government, as Iran has likely enacted mechanisms to ensure political continuity. 

What To Watch For Inside Iran Amid U.S. and Israeli Strikes

Iraq

Lebanon

A plume of smoke rises following a reported explosion Feb. 28 in Tehran. The joint U.S.-Israel military operations on Feb. 28 against Iran have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation.

The military operations have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation and mark the onset of a sustained, multitheater conflict, but are unlikely on their own to trigger near-term regime collapse in Tehran.

A New U.S. and Israeli Attack on Iran Triggers a Regional Confrontation

Afghanistan

Pakistan

A Taliban security personnel operating an anti-aircraft gun keeps watch for Pakistani airstrikes near the Torkham border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan on Feb. 27 in in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan. The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

Afghan-Pakistan Tensions Erupt Into Conflict

A digital illustration shows energy and power icons set with the EU flag. 

By embedding 'Made in Europe' requirements into public procurement, the upcoming Industrial Accelerator Act represents a fundamental shift in EU economic policy.

The EU's 'Made in Europe' Plan Will Fuel Internal Divisions, Transatlantic Tensions

Iceland

Icelandic flags are seen on a street in Reykjavik.

The prospect of a summer referendum on EU accession reflects a strategic pivot driven by heightened anxieties over transatlantic security.


In Iceland, Security Concerns, Domestic Politics Catalyze Renewed Debate Over EU Membership

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Libya

Turkey

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Germany

France

United Kingdom

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

New Zealand

New Zealand and the Cook Islands signed a defense and security declaration, reaffirming New Zealand as the Cook Islands' primary security partner, Bloomberg reported April 2.

New Zealand, Cook Islands: Countries Sign Defense and Security Declaration

The United Kingdom hosted virtual talks with representatives from more than 40 countries, including France, Germany, Italy, Canada and the United Arab Emirates, to begin forming a coalition aimed at restoring navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, the BBC reported on April 2.

Europe, Iran: U.K. Hosts Broad Coalition Talks To Explore Reopening Strait of Hormuz

South African National Defence Force troops began moving through gang‑ridden areas of Cape Town, joining South African Police Service efforts in Mitchells Plain and other Cape Flats hotspots, Eye Witness reported on April 1.

South Africa: Soldiers Deployed in Cape Town To Bolster Response to Gang Violence

Cambodia

Thailand

The new Thai government under Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said it will unilaterally cancel its 2001 maritime boundary memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Cambodia, the Bangkok Post reported April 2.

Thailand, Cambodia: Bangkok To Unilaterally Scrap Maritime Boundary Deal

Mozambique

The Mozambican government confirmed that it would continue working with the International Monetary Fund to secure a new support program, Bloomberg reported on April 2.

Mozambique: Government Reiterates Plans for IMF Deal After Early Debt Repayment

Tanzania

Tanzanian authorities announced that gasoline prices would increase from 2,864 Tanzanian shillings ($1.10) per liter to 3,820 Tanzanian shillings per liter starting April 1, The Chanzo reported the same day.

Tanzania: Fuel Prices Reach Record Highs

Science & Technology

NASA successfully launched its Space Launch System rocket with the Orion capsule carrying four astronauts on the Artemis II lunar mission on April 1.

U.S.: Artemis II Launch Brings Moon Back Into View

Spain

EU member states formally approved a landmark agreement with the United Kingdom to integrate the British territory of Gibraltar, located at the southern tip of the Iberian Peninsula, into the operational rules of the Schengen area, according to an April 1 announcement from the European Commission.

EU, U.K.: EU Approves Gibraltar's Entry Into Schengen Area

Poland

The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other. 

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

Global oil prices surged after U.S. President Donald Trump's April 1 prime-time national address, during which he said the United States would hit Iran hard over the next two to three weeks, Bloomberg reported on April 2.

U.S.: Oil Prices Surge Following Trump's Prime-Time Address

Venezuela

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Venezuela must undergo ​a political transition and hold free and ‌fair elections, but asked for patience until that stage arrives, Fox News reported on March 31.

U.S. Venezuela: Rubio Defends Elections in Venezuela, but Asks for Patience

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

New Nepalese Government's Agenda Threatened by Iran War Fallout

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

New Zealand, Cook Islands: Countries Sign Defense and Security Declaration

Europe, Iran: U.K. Hosts Broad Coalition Talks To Explore Reopening Strait of Hormuz

South Africa: Soldiers Deployed in Cape Town To Bolster Response to Gang Violence

Thailand, Cambodia: Bangkok To Unilaterally Scrap Maritime Boundary Deal

Mozambique: Government Reiterates Plans for IMF Deal After Early Debt Repayment

Tanzania: Fuel Prices Reach Record Highs

U.S.: Artemis II Launch Brings Moon Back Into View

EU, U.K.: EU Approves Gibraltar's Entry Into Schengen Area

U.S.: Oil Prices Surge Following Trump's Prime-Time Address

U.S. Venezuela: Rubio Defends Elections in Venezuela, but Asks for Patience

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