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Bangladesh

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Politics

What major challenges will the incoming government face?

What To Expect From Bangladesh's Upcoming Elections

Assessments

United States

Iran

Japan

Thailand

Campaign posters Feb. 6 of candidates running in the upcoming Japanese House of Representatives election, in Inagi, Tokyo prefecture.

Military & Security

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Japan Holds Snap Elections, U.S. Weighs Options After Iran Talks

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

China

Russia

Russian soldiers wear chemical protection suits as they stand next to a military fueler on the base of a prime mover of Russian Topol intercontinental ballistic missile during a training session at the Serpukhov's military missile forces research institute some 100km outside Moscow on April 6, 2010.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Over time, this will intensify an ongoing buildup of nuclear capabilities across the globe and make crises involving nuclear powers more unpredictable and prone to miscalculations. 


Implications of the Last Major U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control Agreement's Expiration

U.S.-China Relations

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Feb. 5, 2026

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (top, 5th from left) speaks during the election campaign rally on Jan. 29, 2026, in Himeji, Japan. 

Economics

Outcomes for the Feb. 8 snap ballot include a decisive victory for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party, a weakened conservative coalition and an opposition win.

Japan's Lower House Elections: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

Snapshots

Turkey

Europe

A digital satellite illustration shows Europe at night.

Energy

The EU enlargement chief's upcoming visit to Turkey signals an attempt to balance cautious engagement with clear strategic interests, rather than an imminent breakthrough on the country's stalled accession process.

Understanding the EU's Strategic Reengagement With Turkey

India

A freight train on Aug. 26, 2025, in Ajmer India.

A U.S.-India trade deal will bring some relief to Indian exporters, but ambiguities over its scope, implementation timeline and myriad other flashpoints will risk undermining it.

An India-U.S. Trade Deal Will Face Ongoing Hurdles

Iraq

Former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki (center) delivers a speech during a campaign rally in Baghdad ahead of parliamentary elections on Nov. 7, 2025. 

If former Prime Minister al-Maliki overcomes challenges to form a new cabinet, it would likely deepen sectarian divisions, embolden Iran-backed militias and increase Iraq's exposure to U.S. financial and/or military pressure.

In Iraq, the Potential Return of a Divisive Leader Raises Alarm

Pakistan

A burned-out vehicle along a road on the outskirts of the Pakistani city of Quetta on Feb. 1, 2026, a day after an attack by Baloch separatists. The intensifying insurgency will exacerbate strains on Pakistan's security forces, worsening the country's security challenges and further constraining foreign investment interest.

The intensifying insurgency will exacerbate strains on Pakistan's security forces, worsening the country's security challenges and further constraining foreign investment interest.

With Coordinated Attacks, Pakistan's Baloch Insurgency Intensifies

A man walks past a mural painted on the outer walls of the former U.S. embassy in Tehran, Iran, on Feb. 1, 2026.

Despite recent momentum toward restarting talks, a deal will likely remain elusive due to the U.S.'s maximalist demands and Iran's red lines, sustaining the risk of U.S. (and likely Israeli) military action in the coming weeks. 

Can New U.S.-Iran Talks Avert a Greater Conflict?

Colombia

Iranian newspapers one of them (R) with a headline in Persian reading "Iran is ready for a big response," Jan. 27 in Tehran in Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump is considering a range of military options against Iran.

The Weekly Rundown: The U.S. and Colombian Presidents Meet, The Threat of U.S. Strikes on Iran

Latest

Indonesia

Visitors take pictures in front of an electronic board displaying falling stock prices at the Indonesia Stock Exchange in Jakarta on Jan. 29, 2026.

The episode exposes structural risks embedded in the president's governance that could threaten investor confidence -- and with it, Indonesia's economic growth and manufacturing competitiveness.

Lessons Learned From Indonesia's Market Rout

People walk past campaign posters in Bangkok on Feb. 2, 2026, ahead of Thailand's Feb. 8 general election.

Thailand's Feb. 8 general election and constitutional referendum are unlikely to deliver a decisive political reset and will instead risk extending a familiar cycle of constrained reform and policy caution amid heightened security and economic pressures.

Elections and Referendum Unlikely to End Thailand's Cycle of Constrained Governance

Tunisia

Supporters of Tunisia's General Labour Union (UGTT) wave the national flag during a rally in Tunis on Aug. 21, 2025.

If the UGTT fails to resolve internal disputes and stage an effective national strike, President Saied will likely launch an expanded crackdown that further weakens the powerful labor union and, consequently, its private-sector bargaining power.

In Tunisia, UGTT Infighting Risks Playing Into President Saied's Hands

United Arab Emirates

Ukraine

Emirati flags on Feb. 4 in Abu Dhabi, UAE. On Feb. 4-5, delegations from Russia, Ukraine and the United States held a second round of trilateral talks in the United Arab Emirates.

The talks are unlikely to produce a near-term settlement, as Russia will continue to press its territorial demands while using diplomacy to manage sanctions pressure and build leverage ahead of a spring-summer offensive.

The Limits of Russia-Ukraine-U.S. Talks

Costa Rica

The candidates running in Costa Rica's 2026 presidential election participate in a debate at the Supreme Electoral Tribunal in San Jose, Costa Rica, on Jan. 11, 2026. 

Although the president cannot run for reelection, his hand-picked successor will likely win the vote, keeping the right wing at the helm.

Costa Rica's Upcoming Election Will Likely Yield Policy Continuity

Taiwan

Zhang Youxia, senior vice chairman of China's Central Military Commission (CMC), attends the opening of the fourth plenary session of the National People's Congress on March 11, 2023, in Beijing, China. 

The removal of Xi's closest military ally signals an acceleration of his push to eliminate internal threats and heightens uncertainty about the president's decision-making on Taiwan, potentially raising the risk of future conflict.

China's High-Level Military Purge Raises Risk of a Miscalculation on Taiwan

Columns

On Geopolitics

Syria

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Poland

The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other. 

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

Global Trade

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

On Security

U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.

While Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable, his extensive use of U.S. military force abroad over the past year offers insight into the likely direction of his foreign policy for the remainder of his term.


Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Saudi Arabia

Yemen

Yemenis gather during a rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which wants to revive an independent South Yemen, as they wave the old South Yemen flag in Khormaksar Square, in the coastal port city of Aden on Dec. 14, 2025. 

Achieving South Arabian independence will require Yemen's Southern Transitional Council to overcome the historical challenges that have long plagued the governance of Yemen writ large, like tribalism and regionalism.

The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence

Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.

The 2025 Taiwan National Defense Report reflects Taipei's growing intent and tactical capabilities for deterrence by denial against a Chinese invasion, but it also highlights persistent challenges that contribute to a continually rising risk of conflict through 2028.

Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Hamas militants arrive to secure the area as Egyptian and Red Cross workers search for the bodies of the last two remaining hostages from under the rubble of the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza on Dec. 1, 2025. 

In this phase of the conflict, Israel and Hamas aim to break one another's political will not through widespread violence but through attrition and exhaustion.

Hamas and Israel Evolve the Gaza Conflict

In an interview with TV BRICS, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Russia sees no "bright future" for economic relations with the United States despite ongoing U.S.-brokered efforts to end the war in Ukraine, Reuters reported on Feb. 9.

Russia, U.S.: Moscow Downplays Economic Reset as Talks Stall

Somalia

Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, aged 70, declared his intention to run for a third term in office in the June 2026 general election, Garowe Online reported on Feb. 8.

Somalia: President Confirms Bid for Controversial Third Term

Indian opposition political parties and farmers' unions pledged to carry out protests over the coming days, including a strike on Feb. 12, to oppose the India-U.S. trade deal, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 9.

India: Opposition Parties, Farmers Pledge Protests After Interim Deal's Framework Announced

The Israeli Security Cabinet approved measures to expand Israeli administration over some religious sites in the West Bank, expand Israeli oversight and enforcement in some Palestinian Authority-administered areas, and remove restrictions that prevent private Jewish citizens from purchasing land in the West Bank, Reuters reported on Feb. 8.

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Israeli Security Cabinet Approves Measures To Facilitate West Bank Settlement

Algeria

Algeria began canceling its 2013 air service agreement with the United Arab Emirates, marking the latest deterioration in ties between the two countries, Reuters reported on Feb. 7.

Algeria, UAE: Algeria Begins Canceling Air Service Agreement With UAE

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Ethiopia accused Eritrean security forces of making "further" incursions into northeastern Ethiopia and conducting "joint military manoeuvres" with unnamed rebel groups in northwestern Ethiopia, labelling both moves as "acts of outright aggression," Addis Standard reported on Feb. 8.

Ethiopia: Addis Ababa Accuses Eritrea of 'Further' Military Incursion, Urges Immediate Withdrawal

Qatar

QatarEnergy is delaying the startup of its expansion of the North Field East liquefied natural gas project until at least the fourth quarter of 2026 and potentially early 2027, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 9. 

Qatar: QatarEnergy's LNG Expansion Project Start-Up Delayed to at Least Q4

As part of the country's ongoing crackdown in the wake of nationwide protests earlier in 2026, Iranian security forces arrested at least four prominent reformist politicians, AP reported on Feb. 9.

Iran: Government Arrests Prominent Reformist Leaders as Crackdown Continues

Kazakhstan

The national flag of Kazakhstan waves in the wind.

Abolishing the Senate and reintroducing the vice presidency may curb the immediate risk of insider-led coups, but the measures are unlikely to resolve succession uncertainty before President Tokayev's term ends in 2029 and could ultimately increase political volatility.

Kazakhstan’s Constitutional Reforms Could Reshape -- and Destabilize -- Its Political Future

A Ukrainian serviceman from the 24th mechanized brigade prepares a Magura night drone to flight toward the front line in the area of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region late on April 29, 2025.

Ukraine's success in using cheap drones against Russia reveals how smaller states can leverage accessible technologies to impose disproportionate and sustained costs on a materially superior adversary.

Drones Are Redefining Asymmetric Warfare

Kenya

Madagascar

Nigeria

South Africa

Chile

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Lebanon

Morocco

Philippines

Serbia

Nepal

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

The Central Asia-United States business forum, or B5+1, concluded in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, on Feb. 5, bringing together government officials and private sector representatives to advance economic cooperation across the region, Eurasianet reported Feb. 6.

Central Asia, U.S.: Washington Presses Economic Outreach at B5+1 Forum

Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alekseyev, the first deputy head of Russia's military intelligence agency, known as the GRU, was shot and wounded by an unidentified assailant at his Moscow apartment building on Feb. 6, Russian state news agency TASS reported.

Russia: GRU's Second-in-Command Shot in Moscow

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

In Tunisia, UGTT Infighting Risks Playing Into President Saied's Hands

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia, U.S.: Moscow Downplays Economic Reset as Talks Stall

Somalia: President Confirms Bid for Controversial Third Term

India: Opposition Parties, Farmers Pledge Protests After Interim Deal's Framework Announced

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Israeli Security Cabinet Approves Measures To Facilitate West Bank Settlement

Algeria, UAE: Algeria Begins Canceling Air Service Agreement With UAE

Ethiopia: Addis Ababa Accuses Eritrea of 'Further' Military Incursion, Urges Immediate Withdrawal

Qatar: QatarEnergy's LNG Expansion Project Start-Up Delayed to at Least Q4

Iran: Government Arrests Prominent Reformist Leaders as Crackdown Continues

Central Asia, U.S.: Washington Presses Economic Outreach at B5+1 Forum

Russia: GRU's Second-in-Command Shot in Moscow

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