Syria

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Syrian security forces imposed a one-day curfew in Latakia province after four people were killed in recent protests there, state media reported on Dec. 30. 

Syria: Damascus Imposes Curfew in Latakia Amid Alawite Unrest

The Syrian government and the Kurdish-led and U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) agreed to a ceasefire on Dec. 23 following deadly clashes in the city of Aleppo a day earlier, the Associated Press reported the same day.

Syria: SDF and Government Forces Reach Ceasefire After Deadly Clashes in Aleppo

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Economics

The U.S. Senate repealed the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act as part of the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act in a 77-20 vote with bipartisan support to permanently end U.S. sanctions on Syria, the Financial Times reported on Dec. 17.

U.S., Syria: U.S. Congress Repeals Caesar Act Sanctions

Sub-Saharan Africa

Burkina Faso

Mali

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The Trump administration expanded its travel ban to include full restrictions on several sub-Saharan African countries, including Mali and Burkina Faso, Laos, Syria and individuals with Palestinian Authority-issued passports, as well as partial restrictions on several Caribbean and other African countries, the White House announced on Dec. 16.

U.S.: Trump Expands Travel Ban, Effective Jan. 1

Syrian and U.S. forces launched a joint security operation targeting Islamic State sleeper cells on Dec. 14, The New Arab reported the same day.

Syria: Suspected Islamic State Gunman Attacks U.S.-Syria Patrol, Sparking Joint Security Operation

Israel

The U.S. House voted as part of the National Defense Authorization Act of 2025-26 to repeal the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act of 2019, sending it on to the Senate, where its passage looks likely, and on to President Donald Trump, who will sign it, Al Jazeera reported on Dec. 11.

U.S., Syria: Washington To Lift Caesar Sanctions on Syria

U.S. President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social in support of Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa and said it was "very important that Israel maintain a strong and true dialogue with Syria," Axios reported on Dec. 1.

Israel, Syria: U.S. Increasingly Worried by Israeli Actions in Syria

A provisional government investigative committee announced at a news conference that it had ordered the arrest of an undetermined number of Syrian security forces, including members of the interior and defense ministries, over clashes with the Druze in Sweida province, AP reported on Nov. 16.

Syria: Damascus Arrests Security Forces Over Sweida Clashes

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As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Mozambique

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A destroyed church is seen in Mosul, Iraq.

The Islamic State's main threat to the West in 2026 will remain its ability to inspire lone-actor violence, though in the coming years the group's African, Afghan and Syrian branches may become increasingly capable of directing mass casualty attacks in Western countries.

The Islamic State's Enduring Threat to the West

Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa delivers a speech in Damascus on July 3, 2025, during the unveiling of the "New Visual Identity of the Syrian Arab Republic." 

The transitional government's decision will boost reconstruction and counter-terrorism efforts, but it will also risk alienating internal hard-liners and could eventually fuel an Islamic State resurgence if Syria's economic recovery stalls.

The Implications of Syria Joining the U.S.-Led Fight Against the Islamic State

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Campaign posters Nov. 6 ahead of Nov. 11 Iraqi parliamentary elections in central Baghdad.

U.S.-China Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Iraqi Elections, a U.S.-China Deal Enters Effect

Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa (right) meets with U.S. envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, at the presidential palace in Damascus on July 9, 2025. 

The U.S. will leverage permanent sanctions relief to pressure Syria to finalize a security pact with Israel, but the Kurds will resist integrating with President Ahmad al-Sharaa's government. 

U.S. Engagement With Syria Will Promote Stability, but Kurdish Integration Will Continue To Lag

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syria's interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, hold a meeting at the Grand Kremlin Palace in Moscow on Oct.15, 2025. 

Syria's outreach to Russia could lead to diversified economic and security ties, help de-escalate tensions between Russia and Turkey, and eventually facilitate small steps toward Syria's rapprochement with Iran.

Syria-Russia Rapprochement Reinforces Damascus's Non-Confrontationalism

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The assembly hall of the Syrian parliament Oct. 1 in Damascus. An Oct. 5 indirect election for parliament will mark the first time Syrians have had an electoral say in their government since the 1960s.

The Weekly Rundown: Japan's Election, Syria's Political Transition

Israeli military vehicles drive along a border fence, near the town of Majdal Shams, in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, on July 17, 2025. 

Syria and Israel will likely ink a security pact to ease border tensions before the end of the year, but the deal's likely narrow scope and other unresolved disputes will keep it fragile.

The Implications of a Syria-Israel De-Escalation Agreement

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On Geopolitics

Jordan

A mosque in March 2025 in Herat, Afghanistan. Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Whether Islamism revives as in the Levant, evolves pragmatically through parties with Islamic values as in Turkey, or changes beyond all recognition remains up in the air.

The Future of Islamism in the Middle East

A tank is seen during Turkey's International Defense Industry Fair on July 22, 2024, in Istanbul.

Turkey's push to improve its air defenses in Syria amid Israel's ongoing aerial campaign raises the risk of tactical incidents and a brief crisis, although a larger conflict remains unlikely.

In Syria, Turkey and Israel's Parallel Deployments Heighten Flashpoint Risks

Israeli military vehicles drive along the border fence into Israel, near the town of Majdal Shams, in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, on July 17, 2025.

While the two countries may engage in limited security cooperation, Israel's continued military interventions in Syria and the lack of U.S. economic pressure on Damascus will make full normalization nearly impossible.

Despite Recent Talks, Syria-Israel Normalization Remains Highly Unlikely

The new flag of Syria's interim government.

Parliamentary elections in September will cement Syrian leaders' power at the expense of many minority groups, deepening national fragmentation and heightening risks of violent unrest, particularly amid Israeli military intervention.

In Syria, Parliamentary Elections Will Deepen Political and Sectarian Divides

<p>Modern Syria is located along the eastern Mediterranean Sea, bordering Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, and Iraq. Syria&rsquo;s main geographic challenge is uniting its diverse ethnic groups under one domestic power. This is the result of mountainous terrain and ethnic cores that contradict the state&rsquo;s current borders. Syria&rsquo;s population is composed of Sunni Arabs, Alawites, Kurds, Druze, and Christians, among others. The traditional core of Syria&#39;s ruling Alawite minority sits on the northern coastal plain to the west of the Jabal an Nusayriya mountains and to the north of the Anti-Lebanon mountains. Between these two ranges, the Homs Gap has often been the point of invasions from the Mediterranean Sea. The interior region is dominated by the majority Sunni Arab peoples. The Syrian Desert divides this area into two competing regions with strong local identities. The first, Damascus, is the historical capital and the modern seat of power for the Alawites. The other, Aleppo, is situated in the agricultural heartlands of the Aleppo plateau. The Euphrates river divides this plateau from the much more arid Jazirah plateau and allows for irrigation in an otherwise desert region. Syria&rsquo;s modern boundaries fall short of the historical concept of Greater Syria&mdash;spanning from Lebanon to the west and Jordan and Israel to the south. Its current borders were set by the League of Nations&#39; French Mandate, following the dismantling of the Ottoman Empire after World War I. Lebanon, especially Beirut, has always been important to Syria because of its trade ports and access to Mediterranean markets. Syria&rsquo;s recent civil unrest is the latest example of its geographic challenge. Maintaining unity remains difficult so long as its current boundaries continue to overlap regional and ethnic fault lines.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Syria: Damascus Imposes Curfew in Latakia Amid Alawite Unrest

Syria: SDF and Government Forces Reach Ceasefire After Deadly Clashes in Aleppo

U.S., Syria: U.S. Congress Repeals Caesar Act Sanctions

U.S.: Trump Expands Travel Ban, Effective Jan. 1

Syria: Suspected Islamic State Gunman Attacks U.S.-Syria Patrol, Sparking Joint Security Operation

U.S., Syria: Washington To Lift Caesar Sanctions on Syria

Israel, Syria: U.S. Increasingly Worried by Israeli Actions in Syria

Syria: Damascus Arrests Security Forces Over Sweida Clashes

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