United States

Iran

Israel

Military & Security

U.S.-Iran Relations

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps threatened to expand the Iran war "beyond the region" if U.S. or Israeli attacks against Iran resume, Reuters reported May 20.

Global: Iran Threatens To Expand Conflict 'Beyond the Region' if U.S. or Israeli Strikes Resume

Palestinian Territories

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Politics

The Israel Defense Forces said it had confirmed the assassination of Hamas military chief Izz al-Din al-Haddad in Gaza on May 16, and Hamas also confirmed his death, The Times of Israel reported on May 18.

Israel, Gaza: Israel Assassinates Hamas Military Chief, Confirms Expanded Control of Gaza

Lebanon

A U.S. State Department spokesperson said Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend their ceasefire by 45 days during the third round of direct Israel-Lebanon talks on May 14-15 in Washington, D.C., Reuters reported on May 15.

Israel, Lebanon: Israel and Lebanon To Extend Ceasefire by 45 Days

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government submitted a bill to dissolve the Knesset, the first step toward ensuring that the government meets its Oct. 27 deadline to hold elections, The Times of Israel reported on May 13.

Israel: Elections Set for October as Knesset Moves To Dissolve

In a May 10 Truth Social post, U.S. President Donald Trump called Iran's May 10 response to the latest U.S. proposal to end the war "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE."

U.S., Iran: Trump Rejects Iranian Response to U.S. Proposal

Somalia

Turkey

India

Turkey is looking to test its Yildirimhan intercontinental ballistic missile, which has a range of 6,000 kilometers (3,728 miles), and its medium-range ballistic missile Tayfun-4, which has a range of over 2,000 kilometers, from its spaceport in Somalia, potentially as early as this year, Bloomberg reported on May 6, quoting people familiar with the matter.

Turkey: Ankara Reportedly Eyes ICBM Launch From Somali Spaceport

China

Economics

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing, where Wang called for a ceasefire between Iran, the United States and Israel and warned that the Iran war was entering a critical phase, AP reported on May 6.

China, Iran: Beijing Presses Tehran on De-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz

United Arab Emirates

The Emirati Ministry of Defense said in multiple May 4 statements that the United Arab Emirates' air defense systems were engaging with Iranian missiles and drones, which appear to have caused a fire at an oil facility in Fujairah.

Iran: Iran Attacks UAE, U.S. Claims It Sank Six Small Iranian Boats

Assessments

Germany

United Kingdom

Slovenia

Spain

Ireland

Hungary

The EU and Israeli flags in March 2024 in central Berlin's Rotes Rathaus. Although the European Union has sanctioned extremist Israeli settlers, deep-seated internal divisions and a reliance on Israeli defense systems will likely prevent the bloc from imposing comprehensive trade restrictions.

Although the European Union has sanctioned extremist Israeli settlers, deep-seated internal divisions and a reliance on Israeli defense systems will likely prevent the bloc from imposing comprehensive trade restrictions.

Targeted EU Sanctions on Israeli Settlers Unlikely To Broaden Into Wider Restrictions 

Egypt

Jordan

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Yemen

Right-wing activists gather with Israeli flags outside the Damascus Gate of the walled Old City of Jerusalem on May 26, 2025, during a flag march for Jerusalem Day, commemorating the Israeli army's 1967 capture of the city's eastern sector during the Arab-Israeli war.

Israel's quest for middle-power status will be defined by its ability to unify its Jerusalem core, which has remained divided throughout the modern state's history.

The Modern Geopolitics of Israel

Commercial vessels are seen offshore in Dubai on March 11, 2026.

While recent revelations about the airstrikes indicate a shift in both countries' risk calculations, the UAE's hawkish, Israel-aligned posture poses a greater threat of Iranian retaliation than Saudi Arabia's more restrained approach. 

The UAE and Saudi Arabia Enter the War Against Iran, but With Separate Strategies

Kenya

France

Boats on April 28, 2026 on Qeshm Island, Iran, in the Strait of Hormuz. Tensions between the United States and Iran will remain elevated, especially around the strait, following the May 7 U.S.-Iran exchange of attacks and Iranian attacks against the United Arab Emirates.

U.S.-China Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Elevated Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, France Convenes an Africa Summit

Snapshots

People wave Iranian pre-1979 Islamic Revolution and American flags while members of the Iranian community celebrate in front of the Federal Building on March 1, in Los Angeles. 

The recent exchange of fire around the Strait of Hormuz reflects calculated efforts by Washington and Tehran to re-establish deterrence and project strength, complicating already fragile negotiations.


Iran and U.S. Exchange Fire, Further Straining Ceasefire

People gather at the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted Beirut's southern suburbs on May 6, 2026.

Israel's May 6 airstrike, which killed a top Hezbollah commander, will weaken the already tenuous April ceasefire and diminish prospects for U.S.-backed mediation, raising the risk of a return to a wider war.

Beirut Attack Further Dims Prospects for Lebanon-Israel Peace Talks

An Emirates Boeing 777 aircraft prepares for landing as a smoke plume rises from an ongoing fire near Dubai International Airport in Dubai on March 16.

A military response from the United States aiming to compel Iranian concessions without committing to ground operations could trigger a prolonged cycle of retaliatory attacks between U.S. allies and Iran.


Iran, U.S. Ceasefire at Elevated Risk of Collapse After Iran Attacks UAE

Iraq

A member of the Iraqi security forces stands guard next to a national flag as pilgrims march from the center of Baghdad toward the shrine of Imam Moussa al-Kadhim, the seventh of 12 revered imams in Shiite Islam, during an annual religious commemoration on Feb. 16, 2023.

Ali al-Zaidi's lack of experience and ties to a U.S.-sanctioned bank will complicate his attempts to form a government by the constitutional deadline.

Iraq's Prime Minister-Designate Likely To Struggle To Form Government

People in Beirut fire bullets into the sky to celebrate the new Lebanon-Israel ceasefire agreement on April 16, 2026. 

The fragile 10-day truce creates space for rare direct talks between Israel and Lebanon, but a short-term breakthrough is unlikely due to divergent objectives regarding Hezbollah and territorial control, sustaining the risk of resumed cross-border conflict.

What To Expect as Israel and Lebanon Engage in Talks After Reaching Fragile Ceasefire

South Asia

Afghanistan

Bangladesh

Maldives

Nepal

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

A passenger boat sails past the Indian-flagged oil tanker Kashimasan, which is docked near an offloading terminal at Butcher Island (also known as Jawahar Dweep) off the coast of Mumbai, India, on April 1, 2026.

Energy

Energy and fertilizer price shocks from the Iran war will increasingly threaten energy supplies, crop yields and economic growth across the region, pressuring governments' foreign exchange reserves and heightening unrest risks.

In South Asia, Iran War Fallout Risks Worsening Economic and Political Instability

U.S. Vice President JD Vance speaks as special envoys Jared Kushner (L) and Steve Witkoff listen during a news conference after a meeting with representatives from Pakistan and Iran on April 12, 2026, in Islamabad, Pakistan. 

The U.S. blockade may not immediately collapse the ceasefire with Iran, but it will further disrupt maritime shipping and the global economy.

After U.S.-Iran Talks Fail, Washington Moves To Blockade the Strait of Hormuz

Canada

Peru

Vietnam

A digital screen displaying news of U.S.-Iran peace talks April 10 in Islamabad. The United States and Iran are set to begin contentious talks April 11 in Islamabad, Pakistan, with disputes over the 10-point proposal as a framework for discussions and major gaps between U.S. and Iranian demands.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Iran Talks, Hungarians Vote

Israel lives under difficult geopolitical circumstances. A small country with limited resources and surrounded by potentially hostile neighbors, Israel survives by allying with powers that do have the resources to manage the balance of power in the Middle East — namely, the United States. Its geographic position also means that Israel must manage complex relations with its Muslim neighbors by quiet collaboration, by exploiting divisions, and by parlaying its technological and economic advantages into create strategic dependencies. To navigate all the challenges presented by the Middle East, Israel will remain agile in its diplomacy and, when the situation warrants, steadfast in its pre-emptive strikes, its covert activities and its economic relationships.

SITUATION REPORTS

Global: Iran Threatens To Expand Conflict 'Beyond the Region' if U.S. or Israeli Strikes Resume

Israel, Gaza: Israel Assassinates Hamas Military Chief, Confirms Expanded Control of Gaza

Israel, Lebanon: Israel and Lebanon To Extend Ceasefire by 45 Days

Israel: Elections Set for October as Knesset Moves To Dissolve

U.S., Iran: Trump Rejects Iranian Response to U.S. Proposal

Turkey: Ankara Reportedly Eyes ICBM Launch From Somali Spaceport

China, Iran: Beijing Presses Tehran on De-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz

Iran: Iran Attacks UAE, U.S. Claims It Sank Six Small Iranian Boats

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