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Why is the Baltic such a critical and complex region?

Essential Geopolitics: Remilitarization in the Baltic

Assessments

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India

Helicopters fly in the sky during a rehearsal for a military parade Aug. 24 in Beijing.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An SCO Summit, Rubio Closes Security Deals With Mexico and Ecuador

Djibouti

Somalia

The flag of Somaliland is seen during a political rally in Hargeisa on Nov. 8, 2024.

The United States is growing more likely to recognize Somaliland's statehood to secure basing rights in the territory, which would likely roil U.S.-Somalia relations and risk plunging Somalia into crisis.

Assessing the Prospect of the U.S. Recognizing Somaliland's Independence

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

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The Geopolitics of Trade

Economics

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Global Trade

Diverse security risks threaten maritime chokepoints around the world, presenting unique challenges to international trade.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Threats to Maritime Chokepoints Endanger Global Trade, Part 1

Snapshots

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a meeting on May 14, 2015, in Xian, China. 

While Trump-era tariff pressures offer a new economic incentive for cooperation, Beijing and New Delhi are unlikely to fully normalize ties due to enduring strategic and security concerns.

Despite Modest Improvement, India-China Relations Face Enduring Challenges

The outside of the Federal Reserve Board building is seen in Washington, D.C.

If upheld, Trump's unprecedented dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook could dent the U.S. central bank's credibility and fuel market volatility.

The Implications of Trump's Latest Attack on Fed Independence

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Aug. 28, 2025

Turkey

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks after the Presidential Cabinet meeting on May 12, 2025, in Istanbul, Turkey.

The process remains fragile amid the risk of stalled progress on the PKK's disarmament, the lingering threat of Kurdish militant attacks, and the potential for empty government promises.

Threats to the Turkish-Kurdish Peace Process

Norway

The building housing Norway's parliament is seen on May 17, 2025, in Oslo.

Environment, Science & Technology

The Sept. 8 vote could result in another left-wing coalition focused on welfare and climate, a right-wing coalition focused on tax cuts and oil production, or perhaps even an unprecedented grand coalition between the country's two largest parties.

Norway's Legislative Elections: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

Myanmar

A photo taken on Jan. 11, 2022, shows soldiers from the Taaung National Liberation Army (TNLA), a Palaung ethnic armed group, gathering in Myanmar's northern Shan state.

The junta's recent announcements portend intensified violence ahead of what will be highly controlled elections, which will further fragment the war-torn nation but may also help ease its international isolation.

Myanmar's Elections and the Military's Quest for Legitimacy

France

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou speaks during a press conference in Paris on Aug. 25, 2025. 

In the likely case that the Prime Minister Bayrou loses the Sept. 8 vote, Macron will either have to appoint another weak government or call early legislative elections, prolonging political instability and heightening financial risks.

New Political Crisis Grips France as Bayrou Gambles on Confidence Vote

Latest

Indonesia

A protest in front of police headquarters Aug. 31 in in Surabaya, Indonesia. Mass protests are poised to continue absent unlikely and large government concessions, but President Prabowo Subianto's position will remain secure.

While mass protests are poised to continue absent unlikely and large government concessions, President Prabowo Subianto's position will remain secure. 

Unrest in Indonesia Will Continue, but Not Dislodge the Government

A freight train carrying cargo containers rides along a railway track in Ajmer, India, on Aug. 26, 2025. 

While India will remain engaged in U.S. trade talks, a deal that secures relief from Trump's 50% tariff will remain elusive amid New Delhi's reluctance to reduce its agricultural protections and Russian oil purchases. 


U.S. Tariffs Strain India's Exports Amid Stalled Trade Talks

Geopolitical, security and environmental risks threaten to disrupt trade through crucial waterways, including the Bab el-Mandeb strait, the Suez Canal, the Danish and Turkish straits, and the Panama Canal.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Threats to Maritime Chokepoints Endanger Global Trade, Part 2

Bangladesh

Supporters of Bangladesh's Jamaat-e-Islami party wave the national flag in Dhaka during a rally held to call for the introduction of a proportional representation system in the country's forthcoming general election on July 19, 2025. 

While delays remain possible, the interim government will likely hold elections in February 2026 as promised, paving the way for a functioning parliament and the implementation of key reforms.

A Set Election Date Eases Political Uncertainty in Bangladesh

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Mining and Industry Minister Bandar Al-Khorayef addresses the Future Mineral Forum in Riyadh on Jan. 10, 2024. 

Despite recent deals, the kingdom's mining sector will struggle to secure the level of investment needed to accomplish its Vision 2030 goals, though certain minerals adjacent to oil production, like lithium, are poised for greater growth.

The Challenges and Opportunities in Saudi Arabia's Mining Sector

Workers at the Samsung plant in Sriperumbudur, India, stage a protest to demand higher wages and recognition of their union on Sept. 11, 2024. 

The labor reforms, aimed at streamlining regulations and attracting investment, face significant delays and uneven implementation due to political resistance, trade union opposition and state-level administrative challenges.

India's Labor Codes: Challenges to Nationwide Adoption

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during the "Winning the AI Race" summit hosted by All‑In Podcast and Hill & Valley Forum at the Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium on July 23, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Relaxed U.S. export controls on key semiconductors will enable Chinese companies to accelerate their advancement of AI-focused chips.

How U.S. Export Concessions Could Boost China's AI Ambitions

U.S.-China Relations

U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin arrive at a press conference after their summit on July 16, 2018, in Helsinki, Finland.

The meeting risks sidelining Ukraine and enabling Russia to delay sanctions, consolidate battlefield gains, and advance its strategic interests through a U.S.-Russia peace framework.

What To Expect From the Upcoming Trump-Putin Summit

Maldives

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (left) shakes hands with Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu upon meeting in Male on July 25, 2025. 

Improving relations will strengthen India's strategic foothold in the Indian Ocean, while granting the Maldives access to crucial financial support.

Modi Resets Ties With the Maldives After Its 'India Out' Campaign

Columns

On Geopolitics

A portrait of former U.S. President Ronald Reagan is seen in the background as U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., on April 22, 2025.

In just seven months in office, the Trump administration has pursued a series of highly unconventional economic policies that, taken together, amount to the deepest government interventionism into the U.S. economy of any president since the Reagan era.

The Visible Hand: Trump's Interventionism Reshapes American Capitalism

A person holds a smartphone showing an interface introducing OpenAI's new GPT-5 model in the ChatGPT app in front of a blurred OpenAI logo on Aug. 9, 2025, in Chongqing, China. 

Despite users' disappointment with the lack of conversational improvements, GPT-5 signifies a shift in AI development from basic chatbots to more advanced agentic systems, capable of complex, multi-step tasks.

GPT-5 and the Evolution of AI

South Sudan

Chad

Ethiopia

Sudan

Uganda

United Arab Emirates

Shipping containers are offloaded from a vessel at Berbera Port in Somaliland on Aug. 31, 2021.   (ED RAM/AFP via Getty Images)

The UAE is expanding its influence across East Africa through large-scale investments and security partnerships, aiming to consolidate its status as a global trade hub and counter regional competitors, at the risk of entangling regional states in broader geopolitical contests.

The UAE's Long Game in East Africa

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters near Air Force One at the airport in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Aug. 3, 2025. Trump answered questions about his upcoming meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, among other topics. 

While the Trump administration's outreach to Russia may yield limited cooperation, a comprehensive ''reset'' is unlikely for the foreseeable future due to Moscow and Washington's diverging strategic interests.

Can Trump Reset U.S.-Russia Relations?

U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin pose ahead of a meeting in Helsinki, Finland, on July 16, 2018. 

As Putin and Trump prepare to meet in Alaska, the main risk for Ukraine is a U.S.-Russia deal that cements major territorial losses while offering weak security guarantees, leaving it vulnerable to future Russian aggression.

Putin-Trump Summit: The Risks for Ukraine

On Security

DEA New York special agent in charge speaks to the press in New York City on Feb. 28, 2025, after the former leader of a brutal Mexican cartel, Rafael Caro Quintero, described by the White House as the world's ''most evil'' drug boss, pleaded not guilty to narcotics charges in New York.

Despite the political and diplomatic risks, Trump is more likely than not to launch some direct operations against Mexican cartels before he leaves office, potentially ranging from light and sporadic U.S. drone strikes to more extensive ground operations.

The Outlook for Trump's 'War' on Mexican Cartels

Belarus

A view in Rostock, Germany, of the first exit of warships for the NATO exercise BALTOPS in the Baltic Sea on June 5, 2025. 

In response to Russian aggression, NATO is seeking to establish strategic control over the Baltic Sea via rearmament and more assertive posturing, creating an environment where the risk of miscalculation grows exponentially.

Baltic on the Brink: The New Flashpoint in Europe's Confrontation With Russia

Israel

Syria

U.S. Army soldiers prepare to go out on patrol from a remote combat outpost in northeastern Syria on May 25, 2021. 

The U.S. is shifting its Syria strategy from isolation to limited engagement to stabilize the country and protect American interests there, but Turkey and Israel's competing influence campaigns could complicate Washington's approach.

In Post-Assad Syria, the U.S. Struggles to Find a New Strategy

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un stood beside Chinese President Xi Jinping at China's Sept. 3 military parade, which was also attended by dozens of other world leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, Reuters has reported.

North Korea, China: Kim Attends China's Military Parade Alongside Xi

Thailand

Former Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul of Thailand's center-right Bhumjaithai Party has secured support from 289 of 492 lawmakers, positioning him to become Thailand's next prime minister in a Sept. 5 lower house vote, Bloomberg reported Sep. 3.

Thailand: New Prime Minister Incoming With Snap Elections on the Horizon

An Istanbul court voided the results of Turkey's main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) 2023 Istanbul provincial congress due to allegations that delegates received cash payments to influence their votes, and that CHP board members who were elected during that congress should thus be removed, including, notably, Istanbul provincial head Ozgur Celik, Reuters reported Sept. 2.

Turkey: Istanbul Court Rules Against Main Opposition Party, as Government Expands Crackdown

Taiwan

Chinese President Xi Jinping gave a speech to dozens of world leaders at a military parade in Beijing on Sept. 3, celebrating the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, Xinhua reported the same day.

China: Xi Poses China as Antidote to Western Trade Chaos, Showcases Taiwan Deterrence During Military Parade 

Science & Technology

United Kingdom

Spain

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is in London for his first bilateral meeting with his British counterpart Keir Starmer, The Guardian reported on Sept. 3.

U.K., Spain: Sanchez and Starmer to Sign Strategic Agreement in London

The European Commission formally submitted the European Union-Mercosur free trade agreement for approval by member states, including safeguard measures aimed at easing opposition from critics such as France and Poland, Reuters reported on Sept. 3.

EU, Mercosur: EU Submits Mercosur Trade Deal for Approval

On Sept. 2 a federal judge barred Google from entering exclusive contracts with other companies on the distribution of Google Search and several other of its products, but rejected the Justice Department's demand for structural remedies -- including the forced divestiture of Chrome or Android -- in the remedy phase of the landmark antitrust ruling made last year that found that Google held a monopoly and acted unlawfully to protect that monopoly in online search.

U.S.: Judge Orders Google to Share Some Search Data, but Rejects Breakup in Antitrust Case

Bahrain

Iran

Oman

Qatar

Vehicles drive along a main thoroughfare past a billboard that reads in Farsi and Hebrew: "A severe blow... The vile and villainous Zionist regime (Israel) has made a grave mistake,” in central Tehran on June 24, 2025. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The war has weakened Iran, but has also shifted regional perceptions of Israel as a destabilizing force, prompting Gulf states to reassess alliances, Turkey to emerge as a rival, and raising the risk of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.

Assessing the Regional Impact of the Israel-Iran War, Part 2

U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak during a rally at a steel plant in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania, on May 30, 2025. 

For the rest of his term, Trump will continue to use tariffs to secure foreign policy concessions on both trade and non-trade matters, even if he starts shifting away from broad, global tariff threats to ones focused on specific countries or goods. 

A Look at Trump's Evolving Tariff Strategy

Venezuela

U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters on Sept. 2 that the U.S. military conducted a strike against a boat carrying drugs in the Caribbean Sea after it departed Venezuela, Bloomberg reported the same day.

Americas: Trump Announces U.S. Strike Against Drug Vessel in Caribbean Sea

Russia and China signed a memorandum of understanding to build the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline following recent talks between the two countries' presidents, Reuters reported Sept. 2. However, the CEO of the Russian state energy company Gazprom, Alexei Miller, confirmed that the price of Russian gas exported via the pipeline has not yet been agreed upon.

Russia, China: Countries Sign Deal to Advance New Pipeline, but Pricing Gap Shows Beijing's Leverage

Mozambique

Mozambican opposition leader, Venancio Mondlane, has been sworn in as a member of the Council of State, an advisory body to the president, Club of Mozambique reported Sept. 2.

Mozambique: Opposition Leader Takes Seat on Presidential Advisory Council

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

The Visible Hand: Trump's Interventionism Reshapes American Capitalism

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

North Korea, China: Kim Attends China's Military Parade Alongside Xi

Thailand: New Prime Minister Incoming With Snap Elections on the Horizon

Turkey: Istanbul Court Rules Against Main Opposition Party, as Government Expands Crackdown

China: Xi Poses China as Antidote to Western Trade Chaos, Showcases Taiwan Deterrence During Military Parade

U.K., Spain: Sanchez and Starmer to Sign Strategic Agreement in London

EU, Mercosur: EU Submits Mercosur Trade Deal for Approval

U.S.: Judge Orders Google to Share Some Search Data, but Rejects Breakup in Antitrust Case

Americas: Trump Announces U.S. Strike Against Drug Vessel in Caribbean Sea

Russia, China: Countries Sign Deal to Advance New Pipeline, but Pricing Gap Shows Beijing's Leverage

Mozambique: Opposition Leader Takes Seat on Presidential Advisory Council

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