Mali

United States

Military & Security

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau expressed his support for Malian security forces' fight against al Qaeda affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, in a post on X dated Nov. 4, AP reported on Nov. 5. 

Mali: U.S. Official Expresses Support for Junta in Fight Against JNIM, Vows Further Cooperation

United Arab Emirates

Politics

The United Arab Emirates reportedly paid approximately €50 million and delivered several tons of weapons and ammunition to al Qaeda Sahel affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) in exchange for three kidnapped foreigners, including two Emiratis, Jeune Afrique reported on Oct. 30.

Mali, UAE: UAE Reportedly Pays €50 Million Ransom to JNIM Jihadists

Australia

Foreign missions accredited to Mali, including those representing the United States and Australia, have called on their nationals to immediately leave Mali amid a worsening jihadist insurgency now threatening the capital, Bamako, Radio France Internationale reported on Oct. 29.

Mali: Foreign Missions Order Nationals To Leave Mali as Jihadists Double Down on Attacks Near Bamako

Economics

Malian junta leader Gen. Assimi Goita dismissed several senior military officers for underperformance amid an economic blockade imposed by al Qaeda affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), which has caused a severe fuel shortage, Jeune Afrique reported on Oct. 23.

Mali: Worsening Jihadist Insurgency Exposes Divisions in Junta, Leading to Dismissal of Senior Officers

Energy

About 10 days ago, Malian authorities reportedly reached out to al Qaeda-affiliated Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, to negotiate an end to the group's economic blockade in southwestern Mali, which connects to Senegal, RFI reported on Oct. 9.

Mali: Junta Opens Talks With Jihadists Amid Economic Blockade, but JNIM Sets Conditions

Ukraine

Russia

Some Malian Tuareg rebels of the Azawad Liberation Front, or FLA, have reportedly trained in Ukraine and are adopting tactics learned from the conflict with Russia, including the use of armed first-person view and fiber-optic drones for targeted attacks on Malian and Russian-linked forces, as well as deceptive measures like inflatable decoys, Jeune Afrique reported on Oct. 7.

Mali, Ukraine: Tuareg Rebels Allegedly Receive Discreet Training in Ukraine

Militants of al Qaeda affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, destroyed at least 40 fuel delivery trucks that were being escorted by the Malian military in southwestern Mali, Reuters reported on Sept. 15, based on conversations with a truckers’ union official.

Mali: JNIM Destroys Over 40 Fuel Delivery Trucks as It Ramps Up Fuel Blockade Strategy

Al Qaeda affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, announced on Sept. 3 that it had begun blockades on Mali's southwestern cities of Kayes and Nioro du Sahel, Radio France Internationale reported Sept. 4.

Mali: JNIM Imposes Blockade on Southwestern Cities, Announces Plan to Halt Fuel Shipments

Assessments

Malian trucks carrying fuel are seen waiting to cross the border between Cote d'Ivoire and Mali on Oct. 31, 2025. 

In the likely case that the junta fails to lift the blockade on Bamako by force, rising internal tensions could ultimately fragment the country's security forces, potentially enabling the al Qaeda affiliate JNIM to assert control over the capital.

Mali's Junta Fights for Its Life as Jihadists Tighten Their Noose on Bamako

Algeria

Anti-riot police officers on April 8 in front of the Algerian Embassy in Bamako, Mali. While a full-scale military conflict remains very unlikely, Mali's legal challenge against Algeria ensures that diplomatic and security friction will define the relationship for the foreseeable future.

While a full-scale military conflict remains very unlikely, Mali's legal challenge against Algeria ensures that diplomatic and security friction will define the relationship for the foreseeable future.

Mali's ICJ Case Against Algeria Will Deepen Diplomatic Standoff in the Sahel

Burkina Faso

Chad

Niger

Nigeria

Nigerian soldiers from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) drive in pick-ups during training at the Sector 3 MNJTF military base headquarters in Monguno, Borno state, Nigeria, on July 5, 2025. 

War, Insurgency & Terrorism

Armed groups will continue to expand across Nigeria as the government struggles with domestic constraints and limits on regional security cooperation.

In Nigeria, Security Forces Struggle To Address Growing Militancy

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Malian counterpart Abdoulaye Diop hold a joint press conference following their meeting in Moscow, Russia, on May 20, 2022. 

While Russian military support to Mali is set to persist, the Sahelian country's security environment will likely continue to deteriorate amid jihadist groups' strong momentum.

What's Next for Mali as Russia's Wagner Group Pulls Out? 

Columns

On Geopolitics

Benin

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Comoros

Cote d'Ivoire

Djibouti

Gabon

Guinea

Madagascar

Mauritania

Republic of the Congo

Senegal

Togo

Morocco

France

A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025. 

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment 

A picture released on July 12, 1963, of then-French President Gen. Charles de Gaulle (2L) and Jacques Foccart (L) greeting African, Malagasy and French overseas territories veterans arriving in Paris for French Bastille Day celebrations.

After decades of cultivating tight-knit relationships with francophone African countries, France has effectively ended its forward military presence in West and Central Africa amid shifting political dynamics in both regions, which will weaken its influence on the continent but enable Paris to reallocate resources towards Europe's security.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 1: A New Balance of Power 

Sub-Saharan Africa

Kenya

Sudan

Middle East and North Africa

Libya

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Burkina Faso's junta leader Capt. Ibrahim Traore during a welcoming ceremony at the second Russia-Africa summit in Saint Petersburg, Russia, on July 27, 2023.

Competition against the West will fuel Russia's outreach to Africa, but jihadist expansion in the Sahel will eventually force Moscow into tough policy decisions.

What the Future Holds for Russia in Africa

The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Environmental conditions in the Sahel are likely to worsen due to desertification, rapid population growth and political instability. 

The Geopolitics of Water: The Role of Desertification in Conflict in the Sahel

A staff member walks past a stage before a press conference at the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria, on Feb. 27, 2023. 

The exit will worsen all three countries' economic outlook, especially if they decide to also leave the West African Economic and Monetary Union, which would likely fuel jihadist activity in the Sahel.

What Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso's Exit From ECOWAS Means for West Africa

South Africa

Argentina

Mexico

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Turkey

Hong Kong SAR, China

China

Japan

South Korea

Taiwan

United Kingdom

Poland

Spain

Italy

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Bangladesh

India

Pakistan

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Media

Graphics

A general view of a military crest of the French army in Niamey, Niger, on July 15, 2022.

French and U.N. troop withdrawals from the Sahel will open the door to jihadist attacks and external actors.

The Sahel's Security Environment Amid French and U.N. Troop Withdrawals

Snapshots

Protesters in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, wave Russian and Burkinabe flags on Oct. 4, 2022. 

Cyber

Many of the drivers that led to the recent coups in the Sahel are present in other African countries, granting Russian-sponsored influence operations more inroads.

Africa's Instability Creates Fertile Ground for Russian Disinformation

<p>Mali&#39;s borders were created in 1960 from the division of colonial French West Africa. The country encompasses two geographically distinct regions. These two regions &mdash;&nbsp;defined by the fertile, densely populated southern savannas and the arid, sparse northern Sahara &mdash;&nbsp;are largely separated by the Niger River, which also serves as the historic lifeline of Malian commerce. These regions have independent geopolitical cores. The southern core is the Bambara agricultural triangle that includes Bamako &mdash;&nbsp;the nation&#39;s capital. It&#39;s home to the Bambara people who share ethnic ties with Mali&#39;s southern neighbors: Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Guinea and Senegal. The northern core is found at the southern end of the Hoggar Mountains and is home to the nomadic Tuareg &mdash; a Berber people with ties to populations in Niger, Mauritania and Algeria. Projecting political authority over both distinct regions is Mali&#39;s primary geographic challenge. The two largest cities in the north &mdash;&nbsp;Timbuktu and Gao &mdash; are on the Niger River and once served as major trading outposts between the two cores. Over the centuries, the establishment of sea routes by Europeans lessened the role of the Tuareg and these cities. Subsequently, the Tuareg Islamic sphere of influence has diminished, and the Saharan trade routes that once transferred salt, gold, ivory and slaves deteriorated. Today, Mali is one of the world&#39;s poorest countries. Its economy is based on agriculture, particularly cotton, livestock and gold mining. As the country&#39;s 2012 coup demonstrates, Bamako faces considerable challenges projecting domestic power from the extreme southwest of the country into the vast stretches of Mali&#39;s Saharan desert.</p>

The Jihadist Wars

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

Mali: U.S. Official Expresses Support for Junta in Fight Against JNIM, Vows Further Cooperation

Mali, UAE: UAE Reportedly Pays €50 Million Ransom to JNIM Jihadists

Mali: Foreign Missions Order Nationals To Leave Mali as Jihadists Double Down on Attacks Near Bamako

Mali: Worsening Jihadist Insurgency Exposes Divisions in Junta, Leading to Dismissal of Senior Officers

Mali: Junta Opens Talks With Jihadists Amid Economic Blockade, but JNIM Sets Conditions

Mali, Ukraine: Tuareg Rebels Allegedly Receive Discreet Training in Ukraine

Mali: JNIM Destroys Over 40 Fuel Delivery Trucks as It Ramps Up Fuel Blockade Strategy

Mali: JNIM Imposes Blockade on Southwestern Cities, Announces Plan to Halt Fuel Shipments

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support