Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

Military & Security

Interim Burkina Faso leader Capt. Ibrahim Traore pledged large-scale joint military operations against armed groups across the Sahel in the coming days in his new role as head of the Alliance of Sahel States, Al Jazeera reported Dec. 24.

Sahel: Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger Announce Large-scale Counterterrorism Operations

Politics

In a rare video message released Dec. 22, influential Malian religious leader Imam  Mahmoud  Dicko called on Malians to "rise up and come together" and end restrictions on freedoms and widespread hardship, RFI reported Dec. 23.

Mali: Leading Imam Issues Rare Video Appeal for Malians To Rise Up

Sub-Saharan Africa

United States

Syria

Laos

Economics

The Trump administration expanded its travel ban to include full restrictions on several sub-Saharan African countries, including Mali and Burkina Faso, Laos, Syria and individuals with Palestinian Authority-issued passports, as well as partial restrictions on several Caribbean and other African countries, the White House announced on Dec. 16.

U.S.: Trump Expands Travel Ban, Effective Jan. 1

Cote d'Ivoire

The government of Cote d'Ivoire is pressing the United States to deploy intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) assets to the country to help counter the fuel blockade imposed on the Malian capital Bamako by al Qaeda affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), Reuters reported Dec. 11, citing conversations with two Ivorian officials.

Cote D'Ivoire: Government Lobbies for U.S. Air Assets to Counter JNIM Blockade on Bamako

Energy

Al Qaeda Sahel affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, resumed attacks against fuel tanker convoys in southern Mali, setting on fire at least 15 tankers near Bougouni, in southern Mali, on Dec. 6, RFI reported the following day. 

Mali: JNIM Resumes Attacks on Fuel Tankers After Lull

Mahmoud Dicko, a prominent Malian religious and political figure who played a key role in the 2020 coup, has joined the country's exiled opposition coalition, the Coalition of Forces for the Republic (CFR), Jeune Afrique reported Dec. 5.

Mali: Imam Influential in the 2020 Coup Joins New Opposition Coalition, Calls for Dialogue with Jihadists

Russia

Diesel and gasoline shortages in Bamako caused by al Qaeda affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin's fuel blockade on the city have greatly eased, with most gas stations in the city having reopened since Nov. 24, Radio France International reported Nov. 29.

Mali: Easing Fuel Shortages in Bamako Curb Immediate Challenges to Junta 

African Union Commission Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf expressed his "deep concern" about the "rapidly deteriorating security situation in Mali" and called for "enhanced cooperation, intelligence-sharing and sustained support" for countries in the western Sahel confronted with rapidly expanding activity from jihadist groups, Reuters reported on Nov. 10. 

Mali: African Union Calls for Urgent Support to Junta as Concerns Over JNIM's Capture of Bamako Rise

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Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Malian trucks carrying fuel are seen waiting to cross the border between Cote d'Ivoire and Mali on Oct. 31, 2025. 

In the likely case that the junta fails to lift the blockade on Bamako by force, rising internal tensions could ultimately fragment the country's security forces, potentially enabling the al Qaeda affiliate JNIM to assert control over the capital.

Mali's Junta Fights for Its Life as Jihadists Tighten Their Noose on Bamako

Algeria

Anti-riot police officers on April 8 in front of the Algerian Embassy in Bamako, Mali. While a full-scale military conflict remains very unlikely, Mali's legal challenge against Algeria ensures that diplomatic and security friction will define the relationship for the foreseeable future.

While a full-scale military conflict remains very unlikely, Mali's legal challenge against Algeria ensures that diplomatic and security friction will define the relationship for the foreseeable future.

Mali's ICJ Case Against Algeria Will Deepen Diplomatic Standoff in the Sahel

Chad

Nigerian soldiers from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) drive in pick-ups during training at the Sector 3 MNJTF military base headquarters in Monguno, Borno state, Nigeria, on July 5, 2025. 

War, Insurgency & Terrorism

Armed groups will continue to expand across Nigeria as the government struggles with domestic constraints and limits on regional security cooperation.

In Nigeria, Security Forces Struggle To Address Growing Militancy

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Malian counterpart Abdoulaye Diop hold a joint press conference following their meeting in Moscow, Russia, on May 20, 2022. 

While Russian military support to Mali is set to persist, the Sahelian country's security environment will likely continue to deteriorate amid jihadist groups' strong momentum.

What's Next for Mali as Russia's Wagner Group Pulls Out? 

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Cameroon

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France

A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025. 

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment 

A picture released on July 12, 1963, of then-French President Gen. Charles de Gaulle (2L) and Jacques Foccart (L) greeting African, Malagasy and French overseas territories veterans arriving in Paris for French Bastille Day celebrations.

After decades of cultivating tight-knit relationships with francophone African countries, France has effectively ended its forward military presence in West and Central Africa amid shifting political dynamics in both regions, which will weaken its influence on the continent but enable Paris to reallocate resources towards Europe's security.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 1: A New Balance of Power 

Kenya

Sudan

Middle East and North Africa

Libya

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Burkina Faso's junta leader Capt. Ibrahim Traore during a welcoming ceremony at the second Russia-Africa summit in Saint Petersburg, Russia, on July 27, 2023.

Competition against the West will fuel Russia's outreach to Africa, but jihadist expansion in the Sahel will eventually force Moscow into tough policy decisions.

What the Future Holds for Russia in Africa

The Geopolitics of Water

Environmental conditions in the Sahel are likely to worsen due to desertification, rapid population growth and political instability. 

The Geopolitics of Water: The Role of Desertification in Conflict in the Sahel

A staff member walks past a stage before a press conference at the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria, on Feb. 27, 2023. 

The exit will worsen all three countries' economic outlook, especially if they decide to also leave the West African Economic and Monetary Union, which would likely fuel jihadist activity in the Sahel.

What Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso's Exit From ECOWAS Means for West Africa

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In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Media

Graphics

A general view of a military crest of the French army in Niamey, Niger, on July 15, 2022.

French and U.N. troop withdrawals from the Sahel will open the door to jihadist attacks and external actors.

The Sahel's Security Environment Amid French and U.N. Troop Withdrawals

<p>Mali&#39;s borders were created in 1960 from the division of colonial French West Africa. The country encompasses two geographically distinct regions. These two regions &mdash;&nbsp;defined by the fertile, densely populated southern savannas and the arid, sparse northern Sahara &mdash;&nbsp;are largely separated by the Niger River, which also serves as the historic lifeline of Malian commerce. These regions have independent geopolitical cores. The southern core is the Bambara agricultural triangle that includes Bamako &mdash;&nbsp;the nation&#39;s capital. It&#39;s home to the Bambara people who share ethnic ties with Mali&#39;s southern neighbors: Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Guinea and Senegal. The northern core is found at the southern end of the Hoggar Mountains and is home to the nomadic Tuareg &mdash; a Berber people with ties to populations in Niger, Mauritania and Algeria. Projecting political authority over both distinct regions is Mali&#39;s primary geographic challenge. The two largest cities in the north &mdash;&nbsp;Timbuktu and Gao &mdash; are on the Niger River and once served as major trading outposts between the two cores. Over the centuries, the establishment of sea routes by Europeans lessened the role of the Tuareg and these cities. Subsequently, the Tuareg Islamic sphere of influence has diminished, and the Saharan trade routes that once transferred salt, gold, ivory and slaves deteriorated. Today, Mali is one of the world&#39;s poorest countries. Its economy is based on agriculture, particularly cotton, livestock and gold mining. As the country&#39;s 2012 coup demonstrates, Bamako faces considerable challenges projecting domestic power from the extreme southwest of the country into the vast stretches of Mali&#39;s Saharan desert.</p>

The Jihadist Wars

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

Sahel: Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger Announce Large-scale Counterterrorism Operations

Mali: Leading Imam Issues Rare Video Appeal for Malians To Rise Up

U.S.: Trump Expands Travel Ban, Effective Jan. 1

Cote D'Ivoire: Government Lobbies for U.S. Air Assets to Counter JNIM Blockade on Bamako

Mali: JNIM Resumes Attacks on Fuel Tankers After Lull

Mali: Imam Influential in the 2020 Coup Joins New Opposition Coalition, Calls for Dialogue with Jihadists

Mali: Easing Fuel Shortages in Bamako Curb Immediate Challenges to Junta

Mali: African Union Calls for Urgent Support to Junta as Concerns Over JNIM's Capture of Bamako Rise

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