<p>Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. The Himalayan Mountains form the northern border of South Asia, whose two main rivers, the Indus and the Ganges, support the region&rsquo;s great population centers. India is the region&rsquo;s dominant country, home to the world&rsquo;s fastest growing economy. But its rivalry with neighboring Pakistan, a fellow nuclear power and growing consumer market, has made South Asia one of the world&rsquo;s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints. The region is also a testament to how militancy and militarism can undermine the regional integration needed to unleash higher economic growth.</p>

Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. 

South Asia

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The India-Pakistan Rivalry

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India's Own Worst Enemy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

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Turkey's export strategy necessitates trade partnerships with countries in many different spheres of influence, portending both risks and opportunities as Ankara attempts to maintain its neutral middle-power status.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Turkey's Export Strategy Hinges on Neutrality

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Military & Security

Will the cease-fire between the two countries last?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for India-Pakistan Relations

India's evolving trade strategy aims to boost key exports while protecting sensitive sectors, reflecting a blend of liberalization and long-standing protectionist instincts.

The Geopolitics of Trade: India

The Bombay Stock Exchange building May 7 in Mumbai, India. If military hostilities were to resume and lead to a prolonged conflict, Pakistan would be far less well-positioned than India to sustain it from an economic and financial perspective.

If military hostilities were to resume and lead to a prolonged conflict, Pakistan would be far less well-positioned than India to sustain it from an economic and financial perspective.

The Economic Case for an India-Pakistan Ceasefire

Snapshots

Indian soldiers pay respect during a wreath-laying ceremony for a soldier who was killed during a cross-border firing between India and Pakistan, in Jammu on May 12, 2025. 

While the near-term threat of severe escalation has waned, ongoing tensions over thorny issues like Kashmir and water-sharing will sustain the risk of cross-border flare-ups.

Amid India and Pakistan's Tenuous Ceasefire, Future Flare-Ups Remain Possible

Soldiers and onlookers inspect the debris of a mosque damaged by Indian strikes in Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-administered Kashmir, on May 7, 2025. 

While a full-scale conflict remains unlikely, escalating tensions will increase security risks in both countries, including travel and business disruptions, nationalist protests, potential militant attacks, and increased cyber threat activity.

India's Retaliation for Kashmir Attack Will Provoke a Pakistani Response

An Indian paramilitary trooper patrols a market area in Pahalgam, south of Srinagar, in India-held Kashmir, on April 29, 2025. 

India will likely soon launch limited military strikes against Pakistan in retaliation for the deadly April 22 Kashmir attack, raising the risk of escalation despite both sides' desire to avoid a full-scale war.

The Drivers and Constraints to a Wider India-Pakistan Conflict

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Iran

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Indian soldiers stand guard atop their vehicle in Srinagar, India, on April 23, 2025, following a deadly militant attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Escalating Pakistan-India Tensions, Canadian Elections and Pope Francis' Funeral

U.S.-Iran Relations

Will India be able to stay on track for its growth goals?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for India's Economy

An Indian paramilitary serviceman keeps watch in Pahalgam, south of Srinagar, on April 23, 2025, following a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir. 

India and Pakistan's exchange of tit-for-tat diplomatic and economic moves is raising the risk of a military escalation, while also fueling domestic unrest due to rising nationalist sentiment in both countries.

India-Pakistan Tensions Surge Following Deadly Kashmir Attack

Israel

According to a June 19 press release from the media wing of Pakistan's military, Field Marshal Gen. Asim Munir and U.S. President Donald Trump's June 18 meeting focused on regional security, counterterrorism cooperation and expanding bilateral ties in trade, technology and energy.

Pakistan, U.S: Pakistan's Field Marshal Meets With Trump

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to work toward restoring full embassy services in both countries following their meeting at the Group of Seven summit in Alberta, Bloomberg reported on June 17.

India, Canada: Leaders Meet To Reset Bilateral Relations After Two Years of Tension

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The U.S. State Department issued a memo giving 36 countries 60 days to meet new department requirements or be added to a travel ban implemented on June 9, The Washington Post reported on June 14.

U.S.: Trump Administration Considers Adding 36 More Countries to Travel Ban

Environment, Science & Technology

India and China announced the resumption of direct flights to one another and efforts to strengthen bilateral communication, The Indian Express reported on June 13. 

India, China: New Delhi, Beijing Agree To Expedite Resumption of Direct Flights

The office of Bangladesh's interim leader Muhammad Yunus released a statement hinting that elections could be held in February 2026, two months earlier than the April 2026 date he announced on June 6, as popular frustration with interim authorities mounts, Bloomberg reported on June 13.

Bangladesh: Interim Leader Yunus Hints at Greater Flexibility on Election Timeline

Pakistan's Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb unveiled a 17.573 trillion rupee ($62 billion) budget for fiscal year 2025-26, Dawn reported on June 10.

Pakistan: New Budget Increases Defense Spending but Seeks Alignment With IMF Conditions

Bangladesh's interim leader, Muhammad Yunus, announced on the evening of June 6 that the country would hold elections in the first half of April 2026, Reuters reported the same day. 

Bangladesh: Interim Leader Says Elections To Be Held in Early April 2026

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U.S. President Donald Trump signed a ban barring citizens from 12 countries from traveling to the United States, with the order set to take effect on June 9, The New York Times reported on June 4.

U.S.: Trump Administration Issues New Travel Ban

South Asia

SITUATION REPORTS

Pakistan, U.S: Pakistan's Field Marshal Meets With Trump

India, Canada: Leaders Meet To Reset Bilateral Relations After Two Years of Tension

U.S.: Trump Administration Considers Adding 36 More Countries to Travel Ban

India, China: New Delhi, Beijing Agree To Expedite Resumption of Direct Flights

Bangladesh: Interim Leader Yunus Hints at Greater Flexibility on Election Timeline

Pakistan: New Budget Increases Defense Spending but Seeks Alignment With IMF Conditions

Bangladesh: Interim Leader Says Elections To Be Held in Early April 2026

U.S.: Trump Administration Issues New Travel Ban

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