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Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said his country would likely be involved in "any" Taiwan conflict given Taiwan's geographic proximity and the need to protect the nearly 200,000 Filipinos who live and work there, Bloomberg reported on May 19.

Philippines, Taiwan: Manila Reiterates Intention To Be Involved in 'Any' Taiwan Conflict

United States

Economics

U.S.-China Relations

Regarding a pending large U.S. arms sale to Taiwan, U.S. President Donald Trump said, "I haven't approved it yet…it depends on China. It's a very good negotiating chip for us," according to a Fox News interview aired on May 15.

U.S., Taiwan: Trump Calls Taiwan Arms Sales a 'Negotiating Chip' With China

As U.S. President Donald Trump landed in China, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng held roughly three hours of trade talks in South Korea aimed at preparing the summit agenda between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14-15, with topics including tariffs, semiconductors, rare earths, agriculture, aerospace, energy and the Iran conflict, Reuters reported on May 13. 

China, U.S.: Summit Prep Points to Limited Trade Accommodations, Taiwan Friction

Taiwan's opposition-controlled Legislative Yuan approved around $24.9 billion in extra defense spending, roughly two-thirds of the nearly $40 billion requested by the government of President William Lai, after the Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party narrowed the package to only U.S. weapons rather than Lai's proposed broader mix of U.S. arms and domestic arms production, the Financial Times reported on May 8.

Taiwan: Reduced Defense Package Funds U.S. Arms, Exposes Domestic Buildout Gap

China announced 10 new measures for Taiwan after Cheng Li-wun, the chair of Taiwan's opposition party Kuomintang, concluded a rare visit to China that included talks with President Xi Jinping, Reuters reported on April 12.

China, Taiwan: Beijing Offers Limited Economic Sweeteners Following Visit by Taiwan's Opposition Leader

The chair of Taiwan's opposition party Kuomintang, or KMT, Cheng Li-wun, met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, where Xi pushed for the party to uphold its Chinese identity and support the "One China" principle, but he also welcomed Taiwanese agricultural and fishery imports, Xinhua reported on April 10.

China, Taiwan: Taiwan's Opposition Leader and China's President Meet

Taichung Mayor Lu Shiow-yen, who is a member of Taiwan's Kuomintang opposition party and a potential presidential candidate for the January 2028 election, said on April 6 that a reasonable special defense budget should be NT$800 billion-NT$1 trillion ($25 billion-$31 billion), much higher than the current KMT proposal, the South China Morning Post reported on April 4.

Taiwan: KMT Split on U.S. and China Ties, Support for U.S. Arms Sales

Energy

China's Taiwan Affairs Office announced on March 30 that the chair of Taiwan's main opposition Kuomintang party, Cheng Li-wun, would visit China from April 7-12 at the invitation of President Xi Jinping.

Taiwan, China: KMT Chair Cheng To Visit Beijing, May Meet With Xi 

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Forecast Webcast

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Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Second-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Second-Quarter Forecast Webcast

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Damage at the Azadi Sport Complex in the Iranian capital of Tehran on April 3.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Iran War Continues, Taiwan's KMT Restarts China Talks

South Korea

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (C) answers questions during a plenary session of the House of Representatives at Parliament on March 26 in Tokyo. Poor ties with China under Japan's new premier portend industrial disruptions in Japan, and supply chain and defense cooperation with regional partners like South Korea and the United States.

Poor ties with China under Japan's new premier portend industrial disruptions in Japan, and supply chain and defense cooperation with regional partners like South Korea and the United States.

A New Leader in Japan and an Old Feud With China

Newly elected opposition Kuomintang (KMT) leader Cheng Li-wun delivers a speech in Taipei on Nov. 1, 2025. 

The KMT's diplomatic outreach to Beijing may yield modest economic gains, but it will also hurt the party's electoral prospects, which could paradoxically raise the risk of military conflict in the coming years.

The Taiwanese Opposition's Plan To Revive Talks With China Will Likely Backfire

A video interview of Taiwanese President William Lai plays onstage during The New York Times DealBook Summit 2025 at Jazz at Lincoln Center on Dec. 3, 2025, in New York City.

President Lai's political disputes with the legislature are unlikely to ease anytime soon, which could disrupt U.S. trade and arms deals and/or jeopardize future opportunities for diplomatic engagement with China.

Taiwan's Political Dysfunction Goes Global

Snapshots

Zhang Youxia, senior vice chairman of China's Central Military Commission (CMC), attends the opening of the fourth plenary session of the National People's Congress on March 11, 2023, in Beijing, China. 

The removal of Xi's closest military ally signals an acceleration of his push to eliminate internal threats and heightens uncertainty about the president's decision-making on Taiwan, potentially raising the risk of future conflict.

China's High-Level Military Purge Raises Risk of a Miscalculation on Taiwan

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right) and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil (left) attend a meeting in Beijing on May 12, 2025.

Global Trade

U.S. pressure on the new Venezuelan government will briefly cool China's engagement in Latin America and could renew trade tensions with Washington, though Maduro's removal is unlikely to affect China's calculus regarding Taiwan.

Assessing China's Response to the U.S. Capture of Venezuela's Maduro

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RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

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On Geopolitics

Taiwanese President William Lai (center), flanked by other top officials in his government, discusses plans to propose a $40 billion supplemental defense budget during a news conference in Taipei on Nov. 26, 2025.

The 2025 Taiwan National Defense Report reflects Taipei's growing intent and tactical capabilities for deterrence by denial against a Chinese invasion, but it also highlights persistent challenges that contribute to a continually rising risk of conflict through 2028.

Taiwan Report Highlights Evolving Security Orientation

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The Maanshan nuclear power plant is seen next to a beach in Pingtung, in southern Taiwan, on April 29, 2025.

The Weekly Rundown: Iran Meets With European Powers, Taiwan Holds a Nuclear Referendum

A voter leaves a booth during voting for the recall election at a polling station in Taipei, Taiwan, on July 26, 2025. 

Its victory in the recall votes will embolden the opposition KMT to press on with controversial reforms and defense spending cuts, but it will also help prevent a near-term escalation of cross-strait tensions.

A Failed Recall Emboldens Taiwan's Opposition

Canada

Cambodia

A Cambodian soldier stands on a truck with a rocket launcher in Cambodia's Oddar Meanchey province, which borders Thailand, on July 25, 2025. 

The Weekly Rundown: U.S. Tariff Deadline Passes, Thai-Cambodian Border Tensions Persist

Taiwan is located along a sea lane in the West Pacific, with the East China Sea to the north, the Philippine Sea to the east and the South China Sea to the south. The island is 180 kilometers off the southeastern coast of mainland China, across the Taiwan Strait. The strait has allowed for communication with the mainland since ancient times, but has also forced the island to confront the mainland's unrelenting attempts to reclaim it.    Taiwan consists of two geographic and population cores. The first is the Chianan Plain in the southwestern region, home to Taiwan's earliest civilizations and the island's second-largest city, Kaohsiung. The second is Taipei Basin, home to the island's capital, Taipei. These two cores are separated by rugged mountains and over several centuries have developed their own distinct social patterns and economic structures. The presence of mainlanders, who have been crossing the strait since the 17th century, further compounds the island's socio-political divides.    Taiwan's crucial strategic position has put it at the center of regional geopolitical competition for centuries. In the 17th century it was controlled by various European colonial powers, and up until World War II, it switched hands between the Chinese empire and Japanese rulers. Taiwan was the extended battleground of the Chinese Civil War in the mid-1940s and only established itself as an independent, unified polity in 1945. Today, it remains a focal point of power struggles between China, Japan and the United States. The island's primary geographic challenge is to avoid being dominated by external powers while securing a maritime buffer. Both these goals are challenged by China, which is expanding its maritime ambitions in the East and South China seas and remains fixated on eventual national reunification.

SITUATION REPORTS

Philippines, Taiwan: Manila Reiterates Intention To Be Involved in 'Any' Taiwan Conflict

U.S., Taiwan: Trump Calls Taiwan Arms Sales a 'Negotiating Chip' With China

China, U.S.: Summit Prep Points to Limited Trade Accommodations, Taiwan Friction

Taiwan: Reduced Defense Package Funds U.S. Arms, Exposes Domestic Buildout Gap

China, Taiwan: Beijing Offers Limited Economic Sweeteners Following Visit by Taiwan's Opposition Leader

China, Taiwan: Taiwan's Opposition Leader and China's President Meet

Taiwan: KMT Split on U.S. and China Ties, Support for U.S. Arms Sales

Taiwan, China: KMT Chair Cheng To Visit Beijing, May Meet With Xi

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