Myanmar

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Myanmar's Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing stepped down as commander in chief of the country's military and entered the presidential selection process, Reuters reported on March 30.

Myanmar: Junta Leader Resigns Command, Prepares for Presidency

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Myanmar authorities expanded fuel rationing beyond odd-even day rationing by introducing a centralized QR and barcode system that caps volumes by vehicle type, restricts purchase frequency and tightens nationwide distribution controls, Bloomberg reported on March 23.

Myanmar: Fuel Rationing Signals Logistics Strain on War Effort

Myanmar's military-backed parliament announced it will begin selecting a new president on March 30 under the 2008 constitution, Reuters reported on March 20.

Myanmar: Junta Advances Managed Civilian Transition Through Presidential Selection Process

Myanmar's three-phase general election concluded Jan. 25 with the military-aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party winning a dominant 290 seats across both houses of parliament, AP reported the next day.

Myanmar: Junta-Run Election Consolidates Military Rule

The Kawthoolei Army, a splinter group of the Karen ethnic community that has broken away from the larger Karen National Union, or KNU, proclaimed the independence of the Republic of Kawthoolei and announced a provisional government during a ceremony near the Thailand-Myanmar border, though the KNU quickly rejected the declaration, The Nation Thailand reported on Jan. 7.

Myanmar: Splinter Group Declares Independence Amid Election Violence

Myanmar began the first phase of a three-stage general election on Dec. 28, Reuters reported the same day, with residents and press observing weak voter turnout. 

Myanmar: Junta-Run Election Sees Low Turnout as Civil War Continues

The U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime said Myanmar's opium poppy cultivation rose by 17% year on year to 53,100 hectares, its highest level in a decade, driven by conflict, economic distress and surging opium prices, Reuters reported on Dec. 3.

Myanmar: Opium Surge Deepens Conflict Economy

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Thailand's anti-corruption body publicly warned that Bangkok's crackdown on crime syndicates and money laundering networks is failing because political, bureaucratic and police elites are taking bribes and protecting criminal groups, The Straits Times reported on Nov. 20.

Southeast Asia: Entrenched Scam Syndicates Face More Raids, Though Leadership Remains Insulated

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Myanmar's then-military chief Min Aung Hlaing prepares to deliver a speech during a memorial event at the Myanmar International Convention Center in Naypyidaw on March 28, 2026, to mark the first anniversary since a 7.7-magnitude tremor killed more than 3,800 people in Myanmar.

Myanmar's transition from military to civilian governance will not lead to a meaningful transfer of power, nor will it impact the country's civil war.

Myanmar's Government Transitions to Civilian Rule in Name Only

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Philippine Foreign Minister Theresa Lazaro speaks at a press conference during a Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting in Cebu City, the Philippines, on Jan. 29, 2026.

The coming year will test ASEAN's ability to maintain unity, manage crises and remain a credible regional forum amid rising internal security risks and a more fractured world order, particularly as the Philippines butts heads with China in the South China Sea.

Previewing the Philippines 2026 ASEAN Chairmanship

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As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

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The Bulgarian flag and the European flag waving in the wind.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Bulgaria Adopts the Euro, U.S.-Venezuela Tensions Persist

U.S. President Donald Trump (center) poses for a group photo with the leaders of (L-R) Singapore, East Timor, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia and Laos during the ASEAN leaders summit on Oct. 26, 2025. 

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The summit highlighted the Southeast Asian bloc's attempts to boost internal unity and economic integration amid the U.S.-China rivalry, but it also exposed structural divides and external pressures that hinder unified action and leave ASEAN states vulnerable to coercion.

The Takeaways From the 2025 ASEAN Summit

A photo taken on Jan. 11, 2022, shows soldiers from the Taaung National Liberation Army (TNLA), a Palaung ethnic armed group, gathering in Myanmar's northern Shan state.

The junta's recent announcements portend intensified violence ahead of what will be highly controlled elections, which will further fragment the war-torn nation but may also help ease its international isolation.

Myanmar's Elections and the Military's Quest for Legitimacy

The flags of the countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, are seen on display.

Malaysia's chairmanship will be pivotal in navigating security risks as well as those from U.S. trade restrictions, potential Chinese economic coercion, and supply chain realignments that threaten ASEAN's cohesion and strategic autonomy.

Previewing Malaysia's 2025 ASEAN Chairmanship

Members of Myanmar's military patrol on a street next to Shwedagon Pagoda during the fourth anniversary of the military coup in Yangon on Feb. 1, 2025. 

The junta will struggle to retain control over large parts of the country in 2025, but it will still seek to hold elections to legitimize continued rule by civilian proxy and appease China.

Facing Territorial Losses and External Pressure, Myanmar's Junta Plans Elections

Laos' Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone (center) and other ASEAN leaders take part in the 2024 ASEAN summit in Vientiane on Oct. 9, 2024. 

The deals signed at the summit reflect an increasing focus on economic integration amid the Southeast Asian bloc's continued failure to find consensus on security issues.

Reviewing the 2024 ASEAN Summit

Members of the Ta'ang National Liberation Army ethnic armed organization train March 8, 2023, in Myanmar's northern Shan state. The resistance's push into the country's interior will further destabilize the business environment and threaten the military government's long-term survival, but the military's ability to hold out in well-defended positions means its collapse remains unlikely for the foreseeable future. 

In Myanmar, the resistance's push into the country's interior will further destabilize the business environment and threaten the military government's long-term survival, but the military's ability to hold out in well-defended positions means its collapse remains unlikely for the foreseeable future.

Myanmar Rebels Put the Junta on the Defensive in Its Heartland

An aerial photo taken on Sept. 25, 2022, shows solar panels at the Sao Mai solar energy plant in Vietnam’s An Giang province. 

Several ASEAN countries are on track to develop substantial renewable power capacities in the short term, but technical, political and financial constraints, coupled with incentives to keep burning fossil fuels, will impede long-term decarbonization goals.

The Challenges Facing Southeast Asia's Decarbonization

Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (R) delivers an opening address at the start of a bilateral meeting with Laos' Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone (L) at the prime minister's official residence in Tokyo, Japan, on Dec. 16, 2023.

Laos' vulnerabilities will weaken its ASEAN chairmanship, although the bloc's economic interconnectivity will likely continue to grow.

Laos' Limitations Portend a Lukewarm Year for ASEAN

The core of Myanmar is the fertile Irrawaddy River valley. The region, a long, flat area that is relatively easy to consolidate, is vulnerable to invasion from the surrounding mountains, particularly the Hengduan Mountains along the northern border with China. Invading Mongols and the now-dominant ethnic Burman, for example, twice overthrew governments in the Irrawaddy valley. Though control of Myanmar's surrounding mountains provides security for the valley's core, it can also stir conflict with the various ethnic groups that inhabit the border regions. As a result, Myanmar has never completely solidified its own territory.    The country borders Bangladesh and India to the west, but a mountain chain separates and protects it from those neighbors. To the northeast, likewise, high mountains and rugged jungle provide a formidable barrier against China. The Shan Plateau to the east poses less of a physical challenge, allowing various ethnic groups to move easily across political boundaries. Historically, the absence of a barrier has facilitated Myanmar's communication with Thailand and Laos, while also making for more frequent conflict with them.     Myanmar's location makes it a natural bridge between the Indian Ocean basin, Southeast Asia and southern China. Coupled with the country's energy resources &mdash; including oil and natural gas &mdash; its position has made it a target for foreign intervention, whether overt, as with the United Kingdom or Japan, or less direct, as with China's recent ports, pipeline and transport infrastructure projects. Foreign interference, like internal ethnic conflict, is a perennial concern for Myanmar because of its physical geography.

SITUATION REPORTS

Myanmar: Junta Leader Resigns Command, Prepares for Presidency

Myanmar: Fuel Rationing Signals Logistics Strain on War Effort

Myanmar: Junta Advances Managed Civilian Transition Through Presidential Selection Process

Myanmar: Junta-Run Election Consolidates Military Rule

Myanmar: Splinter Group Declares Independence Amid Election Violence

Myanmar: Junta-Run Election Sees Low Turnout as Civil War Continues

Myanmar: Opium Surge Deepens Conflict Economy

Southeast Asia: Entrenched Scam Syndicates Face More Raids, Though Leadership Remains Insulated

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